In last week’s installment of the DKE House forecast, we began to look at the necessary ingredients to generate a wave election in the House. The first ingredient we cited was the ability to put a lot of races on the table, in order to broaden the possible roster of partisan “flips” on Election Day. On that score, when comparing the 2018 landscape to the most recent major wave election (the quite lamentable 2010 election cycle), we can conclude that the mission was largely accomplished: the number of GOP-held seats that Democrats have managed to put into a competitive range (within 5 points in at least one poll) is only slightly shy of what the GOP managed back in 2010. The second ingredient is having the resources to flip seats. And, on that front, the answer to whether the Democrats met the threshold there has clearly been a resounding “yes.” In fact, a more appropriate answer might be “holy crap, they didn’t clear the bar, they left the freaking atmosphere.” It is rare in politics, even for those of us who have been following the electoral cycles for a quarter century, to say that we have not seen something before. But it can be said with confidence—we have not seen a fundraising windfall anywhere close to what the Democrats accomplished over the last three months. And that, indeed, may have put a number of races currently on the radar onto the map for November. We will delve into that all-important money chase a little bit later. Before we do that, however, let’s update the forecast, where there has been some slight shifts, and one important change in methodology.
Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● IA-01: This is precisely why we caution that, as long as there's time left on the clock, no triage decision is final: Though both the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund had seemingly abandoned GOP Rep. Rod Blum by never making any TV ad reservations, the CLF on Tuesday announced it was jumping in with a $1 million buy attacking Democrat Abby Finkenauer for the final weeks of the election. For its part, the DCCC, which reportedly canceled almost all of its reservations in Iowa's 1st District last month, isn't quitting the race either and is going up with a new negative hit on Blum. Campaign Action It's hard to say what's going on here. Just days after releasing a survey from The Polling Company that showed Finkenauer ahead just 44-43, Blum put out another poll from the same firm on Tuesday that has his opponent in front 45-43. It's not clear why Blum would share two similar polls back to back like this, especially since the second one was a touch worse for him, though perhaps he wants to argue that the first set of results weren't a fluke. The CLF's private polling, at least, likely shows something similar, but there's little to compare this data to. The only survey we've seen from a reputable outfit, a Siena poll showing Finkenauer up by a sizable 52-37 margin, is now a month old. It's certainly possible this race has narrowed, but it's still notable that even Blum's own polls have him trailing. It may therefore be the case that this late rescue attempt is among the least-bad options for a Republican Party that is trying to hang on to its majority while facing a challenging map. You can keep up with all the latest triage moves by bookmarking our tracker.
Glenn Kessler/waPo: How Trump bobs and weaves to avoid the truth The 26-minute interview that aired Oct. 14 was typical Trump — bobbing and weaving through a litany of false claims, misleading assertions and exaggerated facts. Trump again demonstrated what The Fact Checker has long documented: His rhetoric is fundamentally based on making statements that are not true, and he will be as deceptive as his audience will allow. WaPo: ‘Blue wave’ or ‘left-wing mob’? Anti-Trump fervor fuels a new movement aimed squarely at winning elections. President Trump’s political nightmare, a mother of two in a custom campaign polo, bounded down the driveway like a sweepstakes winner. She had just chatted up a shirtless Republican out to mow his lawn, and he liked what she said. “He’s with me on the cost of health care and preexisting conditions,” Lorraine Wilburn, a first-time Democratic candidate for the Ohio statehouse, told her 11-year-old son, Finn. “He said he would take a look at me.”... If the Nov. 6 midterm elections turn into what many Democrats hope will be a “blue wave,” swamping Republican majorities from Congress to state legislatures nationwide, it will have been powered in part by a new and sprawling network of activists on the left who, like Wilburn, have leaped into action over the past two years — energized by their deep desire to thwart the rise of Trump and his agenda. WSJ: Saudi operatives beat, drugged, killed and dismembered a dissident Saudi journalist in the presence of the kingdom’s top diplomat in Istanbul, Turkish officials said Tuesday, as Washington urged Riyadh to provide answers. President Trump cautioned that Saudi Arabia should be considered innocent until proven guilty. His secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, on a visit to the kingdom, said Saudi leaders had “strongly denied” involvement and were conducting “a serious and credible investigation.” And then Pompeo went to tell OJ he’s glad the real killers will someday be found.
Embattled California Republican, charged with corruption, tries to link his opponent to Islamic terrorism
“Selling Out America”: Paul Krugman explains how their response to climate change is revealing
Hillary Clinton’s clueless comments about her husband’s alleged sexual misconduct are tarnishing her legacy
The tear-drop shaped chocolate will be available in 3 variantsâthe all-time classic creamy Milk Chocolate, the popular almonds that and cookies and crÃ¨me flavor
After two months of pony car hijinks, we say goodbye.
Attention, photo nerds. Here's exactly how Google's pioneering photo technology helps both mainstream shooters and enthusiasts.
Let me just get a Kleenex.
You can now keep tabs on the caffeine you drink through Apple Health and the Ember smart mug.
Yes, it's promising to «stop being polite and start getting real.»
Participation in organized sport during childhood and adolescence is associated with bone mass at 20 years of age.
An advanced U.S. military communications satellite soared into space in the midnight hour Wednesday (Oct. 17), lighting up the sky over Florida as it launched into orbit.
London-based startup Applied has bagged £1.5M (~$2M) in seed funding for a fresh, diversity-sensitive approach to recruitment that deconstructs and reworks the traditional CV-bound process, drawing on behavioural science to level the playing field and help employers fill vacancies with skilled candidates they might otherwise have overlooked. Fairer hiring is the pitch. “If you’re hiring for […]
App maker turned music social network Smule has raised another $20 million. The latest round follows a $54 million raise in May of last year, led by Tencent, intent on helping the company expand Asia operations. This time out, funding is arriving via Times Bridge, the VC wing of India media conglomerate The Times Group. […]
Cognata has raised $18.5 million in a funding round led by Scale Venture Partners, fresh capital that the Israeli autonomous simulation startup will use to meet demand for technology that will help companies speed up the deployment of self-driving vehicles. Cognata founder and CEO Danny Atsmon told TechCrunch the company, which has 28 employees, will […]
Boston Dynamics’ SpotMini has a bright future in construction, delivery, security, home assistance, and … dance? The engineering and robotics design company on Tuesday released a short video of its droid dog shimmying […] The post See Spot Twerk: Boston Dynamics’ Robo Dog Gets Its Groove On appeared first on Geek.com.
A new infrared telescope is the first of its kind to monitor the entire northern sky in search of cosmic events. Designed and built by astronomers at the Australian National University (ANU) and […] The post Infrared Telescope First to Monitor Entire Northern Sky appeared first on Geek.com.
PANAMA CITY, Fla. (AP) - The Latest on Hurricane Michael (all times local): 7 a.m. Authorities say they're arresting about 10 suspected looters a night in an area of the Florida Panhandle left in the dark since Hurricane Michael crashed ashore a week ago. Bay County Sheriff's Maj. Jimmy Stanford ...
What: African Arts of Oceania and AmericaWhere: Christie's, 9 Avenue Matignon, ParisWhen: Oct 30, 4:30 PMPublic Viewing: Oct 24, 10am - 6pm, Oct 25, 10am - 6pm, Oct 26, 10am - 6pm, Oct 27, 10am - 6pm, Oct 29, 10am - 6pmTop Lots of the Sale:- «A Fang Mask», Ngil - Gabon - Height: 59 cm. (23 ¼ in.). Estimate on Request- «Figure of Fang Relief», Eyema Byrier, Gabon - Soclee by Kichizo Inagaki (1876-1951). Measured at Height: 56 cm. (22 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 700,000 - EUR 1,200,000 ($812,400 - $1,392,700)- «A Songye Kalebwe Figure» - Democratic Republic of Congo. Measured at Height: 89 cm. (35 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 300,000 - EUR 500,000 ($348,200 - $580,300)- «Figure of Reliquary Janus Kota-Ndassa» - Democratic Republic of Congo. Measured at Height: 54 cm. (21 ¼ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 250,000 - EUR 350,000 ($290,200 - $406,200)- «A Double Caryatids Luba Stool» - Democratic Republic of Congo. Measured at Height: 60 cm. (23 5/8 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 200,000 - EUR 300,000 ($232,100 - $348,200)- «A Haida Mask», British Columbia - Measured at Height: 22 cm. (8 ¾ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 150,000 - EUR 200,000 ($174,100 - $232,100)- «A Kwele Mask», Gabon - Measured at Height: 31 cm. (12 ¼ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 150,000 - EUR 200,000 ($174,100 - $232,100)- «A Chokwe Mask», Pwo, Angola - Certificate of Marie-Louise Bastin, September 16, 1992. Measured at Height: 26 cm. (10 ¼ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 150,000 - EUR 250,000 ($174,100 - $290,200)- «Songye Figure» - Democratic Republic of Congo. Measured at Height: 65 cm. (25 5/8 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 150,000 - EUR 250,000 ($174,100 - $290,200)- «A Salampasu Mask» - Department of Democratic Republic. Measured at Height: 84 cm. (33 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 100,000 - EUR 150,000 ($116,100 - $174,100)- “Figure of Reliquary Fang«, Okak, Eyema Byeri - Equatorial Guinea. Measured at Height: 49 cm. (19 ¼ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 70,000 - EUR 100,000 ($81,300 - $116,100)- »A Dogon Horse and Rider«, Mali - Measured at Height: 42 cm. (16 ½ in.). Estimated Price: EUR 60,000 - EUR 80,000 ($69,700 - $92,900)- »A Lega Mask«, Lukwakongo - Democratic Republic of Congo. Measured at Height: 23 cm. (9 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 60,000 - EUR 90,000 ($69,700 - $104,500)- »A Jukun Statue«, Nigeria - Measured at Height: 74 cm. (29 1/8 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 50,000 - EUR 70,000 ($58,100 - $81,300)- »Ornament of Proue of Pirogue", Tiki Vaka - Marquises Islands; Measured at Length: 49 cm. (19 3/8 in.). Estimated Price: EUR 40,000 - EUR 60,000 ($46,500 - $69,700)For details, visit: https://www.christies.comClick on the slideshow for the highlights of the salehttps://www.blouinartinfo.comFounder: Louise Blouin
LONDON (AP) - Rail travel at Paddington - one of London's busiest stations - is being disrupted after a train damaged overhead electrical wires. Great Western Rail said the damage was caused by a Hitachi test train operating between London and Bristol. The train was not in passenger use. The ...
Please excuse our lack of manners
Sloane Stephens was eliminated from the Kremlin Cup, losing to Tunisian qualifier Ons Jabeur 6-3, 6-2
The team overhauled its challenger for this season but as Williams chief technical officer Paddy Lowe explains in an exclusive interview for this week's issue of Autosport magazine, «a number of those more radical design changes didn't really work for us». The FW41's aggressively undercut sidepods is one radical misstep that has helped contribute to the car suffering a diffuser stall problem ... Keep reading
LEADING OFF: Astros on defense, NLCS gets testy, Kershaw's last turn for LA?
The ex-Formula 1 driver was injured in a high-speed crash at the Spanish Grand Prix venue while testing for the Honda World Touring Car Championship team when the brakes on his Civic TC1 car failed on the approach to the first corner. Monteiro said he was knocked out in the impact, which required him to be kept in hospital under observation in Spain before he was flown back to Portugal. The ... Keep reading
The Finnish-based squad communicated Meeke’s signing on Wednesday morning, while Jari-Matti Latvala will also remain in a factory Yaris WRC alongside Ott Tanak, who was already under contract. Meeke effectively replaces Esapekka Lappi, who has been announced as Sebastien Ogier's teammate at Citroen in 2019. “It’s a huge pleasure and honour for me to become a Toyota driver,” said ... Keep reading