Edwin Sifuna Sweeps Moses Kuria’s Online Poll With 76.3% as Ruto Gets 14.3%
By Milton Were | Kenya Today Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged with an overwhelming majority in an online poll conducted by former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, taking 76.3 per cent of more than 37,000 votes cast in a four-way hypothetical 2027 presidential contest. The poll, posted by Kuria on his official X account on September 26, placed Sifuna against President William Ruto, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka. According to the final results displayed on Kuria's poll, 37,353 users participated , with Sifuna finishing far ahead of the other three names. President Ruto received 14.3 per cent , while Matiang’i garnered 4.8 per cent and Kalonzo finished at 4.6 per cent . The results produced a striking outcome considering that the poll was conducted through the account of Kuria, a former Cabinet Secretary who has remained an influential participant in Kenya's political debate. The result should, however, be understood for what it is: an X poll of people who chose to participate , rather than a scientifically sampled national opinion survey. It therefore cannot be extrapolated to represent Kenya's electorate or predict the outcome of the August 2027 presidential election. Recent scientific surveys have produced substantially different numbers. Kuria Predicts a Four-Way Presidential Contest Kuria accompanied the poll with his own assessment of the coming presidential contest, arguing that opposition attempts to unite behind a single challenger would ultimately fail. He compared the political situation developing ahead of 2027 with Kenya's 1997 General Election, when President Daniel arap Moi faced several opposition presidential candidates. Kuria named Ruto, Sifuna, Matiang’i and Kalonzo as the four politicians he expects to appear on the presidential ballot. He argued that, with 318 days remaining until the election, the opposition figures would not settle on a single candidate. His comparison with 1997 refers to an election in which Moi faced a fragmented opposition that included Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Michael Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu rather than one united challenger. Kuria's suggestion is that a similar fragmentation could emerge ahead of 2027, although opposition negotiations are continuing and the eventual configuration of candidates is not yet settled. What Kuria perhaps did not anticipate was the scale of the result produced by his own online audience. Sifuna did not merely finish first. According to the screenshot of the final results, he received more than five times Ruto's percentage and more than 15 times the percentage recorded by either Matiang’i or Kalonzo. For Sifuna, the poll arrives at a particularly significant moment. The Nairobi Senator has recently become increasingly explicit about his presidential ambitions. Earlier this month, he said publicly that he wanted to challenge Ruto for the presidency in 2027, while also calling for cooperation among opposition figures. Online Result Contrasts Sharply With Scientific Polls The enormous Sifuna margin in Kuria's poll is particularly interesting when compared with recent national surveys conducted using sampling methodologies rather than voluntary social-media participation. A Bobea Report survey published earlier in September put Ruto at 35.2 per cent , Sifuna at 19.1 per cent , Matiang’i at 14 per cent and Kalonzo at 9 per cent . That survey was conducted between August 26 and September 2 through random sampling in markets, villages, estates and workplaces and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level. A separate Mizani Africa survey published on September 25 also produced a very different picture. It placed Ruto at 38.7 per cent , Kalonzo at 27.5 per cent , Sifuna at 13.2 per cent and Matiang’i at 7.7 per cent , with another 5 per cent undecided. Those differences demonstrate why Kuria's result should not be presented as evidence that Sifuna currently commands 76.3 per cent support among Kenyan voters. X polls do not randomly select participants, do not control the demographic composition of respondents and are heavily influenced by the audiences that encounter and choose to engage with a particular post. Nevertheless, a voluntary online poll involving 37,353 votes can still be politically noteworthy as a measure of engagement among the users who participated. Sifuna's Growing Online Political Visibility The result also comes as Sifuna attempts to expand his political profile beyond Nairobi. His recent Linda Mwananchi mobilisation has taken him into a broader national political conversation, while the senator has publicly indicated that he is considering a direct presidential challenge against Ruto. Kuria's poll therefore adds another data point to a wider discussion about Sifuna's online and activist support, but it does not resolve the much larger question of whether that visibility translates into nationwide electoral support. That distinction will become increasingly important as the 2027 contest develops. Kenyan presidential elections are determined by millions of registered voters spread across the country's 47 counties, not by social-media polls. A successful candidate must also satisfy the constitutional geographical distribution requirement in addition to securing the required national vote threshold. Online popularity and electoral organisation are therefore two very different things. Sifuna would need structures capable of mobilising voters across regions, polling stations and constituencies, while Ruto, Kalonzo and Matiang’i would face their own organisational and coalition-building challenges. Kuria's Own Poll Complicates His Political Message There is also an interesting tension between Kuria's accompanying argument and the outcome of his poll. Kuria's central message was about opposition fragmentation . By invoking 1997, he was arguing that several challengers running separately would recreate a divided presidential field. Yet among the X users who participated in his poll, support was anything but evenly fragmented: more than three-quarters selected Sifuna. That does not disprove Kuria's prediction about opposition unity. An online poll cannot establish what millions of voters or the politicians themselves will eventually do. But it does mean that the audience responding to his question delivered a result very different from a picture of evenly divided support among the three opposition figures. The final tally therefore leaves two separate political stories. The first is Kuria's proposition that Ruto, Sifuna, Matiang’i and Kalonzo will all eventually appear on the ballot , with no unified opposition candidate emerging. That remains Kuria's political assessment rather than an established outcome. ( People Daily ) The second is what happened when Kuria asked his own online audience to choose among those four names: Sifuna received 76.3 per cent, Ruto 14.3 per cent, Matiang’i 4.8 per cent and Kalonzo 4.6 per cent. The numbers are not a national opinion poll and should not be mistaken for one. But with more than 37,000 participants, they provide a striking snapshot of the preferences of the X users who took part and another indication of why Sifuna's emerging presidential ambitions are attracting attention as Kenya moves closer to the 2027 General Election.