Why Mahomes' megadeal should please QBs, teams (except Cowboys)

Contract not No. 1 in key category 

Given the trajectory-changing impact Mahomes has made for the Chiefs, it is worth wondering why he sought to follow the likes of Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick –- who signed 10-year contracts, respectively, in 2001, 2002 and 2004 -– rather than push for a more contemporary four- or five-year structure. Early numbers have Mahomes banking just $63.1 million in fully guaranteed money. That comes in fifth –- behind Matt Ryan ($94.5M), Rodgers, Wilson and Carson Wentz. 

Of course, Mahomes’ deal includes $141M in total guarantees -– which would protect him in the event of another injury scare -– and has “guarantee mechanisms” that would force the Chiefs to cut their quarterback a year in advance to avoid paying him massive roster bonuses. Mahomes’ current status makes overanalyzing this minutia less relevant; he will be the Chiefs’ quarterback for many years. But the Rams once cut Kurt Warner, a league MVP in two of his first three seasons. Mahomes is as close to a franchise-cornerstone lock as there is, but nothing is an absolute certainty.

A major outlier?

Mahomes is not only the first NFL player to sign a contract running into the 2030s, he is the only one to ink a deal that stretches beyond the mid-2020s. Wentz and Jared Goff are the only QBs signed through 2024. The Cowboys have running back Ezekiel Elliott signed through 2026. He and Mahomes are alone in having contracts that run through the second half of the decade.

The Cowboys were the last team to strike a 10-year contract, convincing All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith to sign one in 2014. Four years remain on that deal, which then made Smith the game’s highest-paid offensive lineman. Smith enters the 2020 season as the 20th-highest-paid O-lineman.

It is entirely possible Mahomes’ deal will be a major structural outlier. The better bet is Watson, 24, and Jackson, 23, signing deals more in line with today’s other top passers, thus giving them a chance to negotiate larger extensions –- ones likely to surpass Mahomes’ -– while still in their 20s.

Deal’s place among all sports is debatable

Because NFL contracts are not guaranteed over the life of the deal, the Kansas City quarterback’s 10-year, $450M extension is not in the guarantee stratosphere of Major League Baseball’s top stars’. Mike Trout’s $426.5M contract is fully guaranteed. Even ex-Kansas Citian Eric Hosmer received more guaranteed money ($144M) from the Padres. The former Royal's contract sits 24th among MLB players. Twenty-one NBA players' contracts currently contain more guaranteed money than Mahomes.

That said, the 24-year-old standout avoiding a catastrophic injury will secure him most of the money in this contract. Teams do not part with elite quarterbacks in their prime. When exactly Mahomes and the Chiefs huddle up for their next round of negotiations will be key. Mahomes’ camp will naturally want that to come at some point when he remains in his prime, though the Chiefs have an unusual amount of leverage against a franchise quarterback -– with Mahomes’ contract running through his age-36 season -– compared to most teams. This will create a tricky situation down the road.

Regarding roster management ...

Locking down Mahomes for 12 more seasons creates interesting possibilities for the Chiefs. Again, Mahomes will almost certainly re-up on a higher salary at some point in the decade's second half. But when the salary cap starts ballooning toward $300 million, the Chiefs' deal will look much better. While Monday’s agreement will force them to cut back on free-agency spending –- which they relied on during Mahomes’ rookie deal -– and find more starters in the draft, the bulk of the scary cap numbers come in the contract’s second half. And by avoiding Mahomes' salary cap numbers rising past $31M until 2023, the Chiefs may be able to take care of their best defensive player.

Defensive tackle Chris Jones has expressed understandable frustration, having earned a contract worth more than $20M annually but being cuffed with the franchise tag. The Chiefs extending a slightly less effective pass rusher -- defensive end Frank Clark -- at $20.8M per year complicates matters. No team has two D-linemen earning north of $20M annually, but a window may exist for the Chiefs to make this happen.

To realize the benefit of Mahomes' deal soon and secure a future in which their quarterback and top pass rusher are signed long term, Kansas City may need intel regarding how quickly the league will recover after the to-be-determined 2021 financial setback. Because the team also must hammer out a new deal with the now-vastly underpaid tight end Travis Kelce, Jones will likely play 2020 on the tag due to the league's fuzzy 2021 calculus. Bottom line: If the Chiefs’ Clark extension prevents them from paying Jones, that will make keeping a championship roster around Mahomes more difficult. 

Past reveals what deal means for Chiefs

Before 2017's first-round trade with the Bills that landed Mahomes, Kansas City's quarterback-drafting history was abysmal. After Mike Livingston, a 1968 second-rounder who subbed for an injured Len Dawson during the team’s 1969 Super Bowl season before succeeding the Hall of Famer in the mid-1970s, the Chiefs could not identify passing prospects. Steve Fuller, a 1979 first-rounder, was gone by 1983. Brodie Croyle, taken in the 2006 third round, went 0-10 as a starter. And the player most identifiable with the organization’s inability, 1983 first-rounder Todd Blackledge (chosen ahead of Jim Kelly and Dan Marino), forced a seminal course change.

Between Blackledge and Mahomes, the Chiefs used the trade route to land five starters (Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and Alex Smith). They signed four others -– Dave Krieg, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Damon Huard -– in a span that involved three GMs. Combined, this run of passers went 4-14 in playoff games from 1990-2017. Mahomes’ postseason record: 4-1. Monday’s deal was a generational win for this franchise.