Eight different states are holding primaries on Tuesday in key races for state and federal office, giving us our first major downballot primary night in some time.
Below you'll find our guide to the most important contests in Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
These elections will unfold differently in each state, and we may not know the winners in several contests for days. The coronavirus pandemic means that more voters are casting ballots by mail than ever before, and many election officials have predicted that many votes won’t be tallied on election night. In Indiana, for instance, Secretary of State Connie Lawson said she does not expect final results for two to three days.
Our live coverage will begin at 6 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the first polls close in Indiana. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and downballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Idaho
Polls close in the portion of the state located in the Mountain Time Zone at 10 PM ET/8 PM local time. Polls close in the rest of the state an hour later.
Indiana
Polls close at 6 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern Time Zone. Polls close in the rest of the state an hour later.
● IN-01 (D) (54-42 Clinton, 61-37 Clinton): Longtime Democratic Rep. Pete Visclosky is retiring from this reliably blue seat in the northwest corner of the state, and Team Blue has a crowded contest to succeed him.
The two candidates who both benefited from outside spending and spent the most themselves from April 1 to May 13, which is the time the FEC designates as the preprimary period, are Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott and state Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon. McDermott, a self-described moderate who considered challenging Visclosky before the incumbent retired, deployed $236,000, while Candelaria Reardon, who would be the state’s first Latina member of Congress, spent $136,000.
McDermott's campaign has also received a $525,000 boost from third-party groups—mostly from VoteVets and an organization called Democratic Progress, whose treasurer works for a super PAC that backs independent candidates. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Voter Protection Project, meanwhile, have spent more than $300,000 on mailers promoting Candelaria Reardon and hitting McDermott.
Visclosky and a few unions are backing North Township Trustee Frank Mrvan, but Mrvan doesn’t have the resources that the two leading contenders have. Mrvan spent just $49,000 during the preprimary period, while some allied PACs have spent about dropped $110,000 to help him. A few other candidates are also running here, including attorney Sabrina Haake—who has self-funded almost her entire campaign—businesswoman Melissa Borom, and 2018 secretary of state nominee Jim Harper.
● IN-05 (R) (53-41 Trump, 57-41 Romney): GOP Rep. Susan Brooks is retiring from a suburban Indianapolis seat that was once reliably Republican but has been moving to the left during the Trump era. National Democrats long ago consolidated behind former state Rep. Christina Hale, who doesn’t face any serious opposition, while Republicans have a packed contest.
The best-funded Republican by far is self-funding state Sen. Victoria Spartz, who is backed by the anti-tax Club for Growth and outspent physician Chuck Dietzen $466,000 to $123,000 during the preprimary period. Former Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi and businesswoman Beth Henderson, who has the support of Sen. Mike Braun, each deployed about $90,000, while state Treasurer Kelly Mitchell spent just over $50,000. Also in the hunt are youth pastor Micah Beckwith and Kent Abernathy, the former commissioner of the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles.
The only poll we’ve seen here was a mid-May survey from the Club for Growth that showed Spartz leading Brizzi 32-14, while Henderson took 13%. The Club also has spent about $400,000 on ads attacking Henderson and Brizzi. Henderson also has run xenophobic and misogynist ads against the Ukranian-born Spartz.
Iowa
Polls close at 10 PM ET/9 PM local time. In Iowa, if no candidate receives over 35% of the vote in the primary, nominees are instead chosen at party conventions.
● IA-Sen (D) (51-42 Trump, 52-46 Obama): Four Democrats are running to take on GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, but national Democrats have gone all-in for businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. Senate Majority PAC has spent close to $7 million to support Greenfield, who has also decisively outspent her opponents. Also in the race are retired Navy Vice Adm. Michael Franken, attorney Kimberly Graham, and self-funding businessman Eddie Mauro, who has been airing ads critical of Greenfield.
The only poll we’ve seen was an early May Public Policy Polling survey for a group supporting universal basic income that showed Greenfield leading Franken by a wide 43-12 margin. However, Greenfield’s allies at EMILY’s List launched a nearly $1 million ad campaign against Franken at the end of the month, which could be a sign that this contest has become closer.
● IA-02 (R) (49-45 Trump, 56-43 Obama): Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack is retiring from this competitive southeast Iowa seat, and Republicans are hoping to score a pickup given the area's shift toward Trump. Five Republicans are running here, but the only two who have attracted serious attention are state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and former Illinois Rep. Bobby Schilling, who represented a seat located just across the Mississippi River from 2011 to 2013. Whoever emerges will take on former state Sen. Rita Hart, who faces no opposition in the Democratic primary.
Miller-Meeks, who lost three campaigns to Loebsack, has the support of Gov. Kim Reynolds, Sen. Joni Ernst, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy for her fourth bid for this seat. However, while the far better-funded Miller-Meeks looks like the frontrunner, she still went up with negative ads against Schilling late in the race.
● IA-04 (61-34 Trump, 53-45 Romney): GOP Rep. Steve King was stripped of all his committee assignments last year after he defended white supremacy, and major party figures have been working to oust the longtime western Iowa incumbent. Four Republicans are running here, but the only one who has picked up much money or support is state Sen. Randy Feenstra. The only Democrat in the running is 2018 nominee J. D. Scholten, who held King to a surprisingly close 50-47 win last cycle.
Feenstra outspent King by a lopsided $371,000 to $24,000 margin during the preprimary period, and several outside groups—including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce—have spent heavily on ads portraying King as ineffective. However, even Feenstra and his allies agree that King has a good chance to win renomination. A mid-May Feenstra poll showed King ahead 39-36, while Feenstra's allies released a survey the following week giving him a 41-39 edge over the incumbent.
Maryland
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
● MD-07 (76-20 Clinton, 76-22 Obama): Democrat Kweisi Mfume recently returned to the House after a 24-year absence by winning a special election in April to succeed the late Rep. Elijah Cummings in this Baltimore seat, but now he faces the voters on Tuesday in the primary for a full term. Mfume faces former state party chair Maya Rockeymoore Cummings—who is Elijah Cummings' widow—state Sen. Jill Carter, and Del. Jay Jalisi. This same quartet faced off in the February primary ahead of the special election, which ended with Mfume decisively defeating Rockeymoore Cummings 43-17; Carter and Jalisi took 16% and 2%, respectively.
Other Maryland races to watch: Baltimore, MD Mayor (D)
Montana
Polls close at 10 PM ET/8:00 PM local time.
● MT-Gov (D & R) (56-36 Trump, 55-42 Romney): Both parties have competitive contests to succeed termed-out Gov. Steve Bullock, a Democrat who is running unopposed for his party's nomination for Montana's Senate race.
The Democratic primary is a duel between Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and businesswoman Whitney Williams, who is the daughter of former Rep. Pat Williams. Bullock is supporting Cooney while Williams has the backing of the governor's predecessor, former Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Both candidates have raised comparable sums, but EMILY’s List has spent about $700,000 on an ad campaign for Williams.
The best-funded GOP candidate by far is wealthy Rep. Greg Gianforte, who lost a close contest to Bullock in 2016 and attracted national infamy the following year for assaulting reporter Ben Jacobs on the eve of his victory in a special election for the House and then lying about it. The other two Republicans in the race are Attorney General Tim Fox and state Sen. Al Olszewski, who took last place in the GOP's four-way Senate primary last cycle.
● MT-AL (R & D) (56-36 Trump, 55-42 Romney): Several candidates from both parties are competing to succeed GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte, who is giving up Montana’s only House seat to run for governor again.
The Republican frontrunner is state auditor Matt Rosendale, who picked up Donald Trump's endorsement in February. Rosendale, who lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Jon Tester 50-47, also has the support of the anti-tax Club for Growth as well as a huge financial advantage over his many intraparty rivals. The one other statewide elected official in the race is Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, who has struggled with fundraising.
The Democratic contenders are 2018 nominee Kathleen Williams, who lost an expensive race to Gianforte 51-46, and state Rep. Tom Winter. Williams, who has the support of EMILY's List (and is not related to Whitney Williams, the gubernatorial candidate) outspent Winter $136,000 to $45,000 during the preprimary period.
New Mexico
Polls close at 9 PM ET/7 PM local time.
● NM-02 (R) (50-40 Trump, 52-45 Romney): Freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small will be a top GOP target in this conservative southern New Mexico seat, and three Republicans are competing to take her on.
The frontrunners are 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell, a former state representative who lost to Torres Small 51-49 last cycle, and businesswoman Claire Chase. The battle between Herrell and Chase has been truly ugly, with both candidates calling one another enemies of Trump. Herrell has also been accused of spreading rumors about Chase’s first marriage. The third candidate, businessman Chris Mathys, hasn’t attracted much attention, though a super PAC backing Chase launched an ad attacking him late in the campaign.
The Democratic group Patriot Majority, which believes Herrell is the weaker candidate after her 2018 defeat, has also been airing ads to help her get nominated again. On the GOP side, an establishment-flavored group called Defending Main Street has been running ads against Herrell. A Chase ally also set up a super PAC to air commercials against her rivals.
● NM-03 (D) (52-37 Clinton, 58-39 Obama): Several Democrats are running to succeed Senate candidate Ben Ray Luján in this reliably blue seat in the northern part of the state. The two main contenders look like attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez and former CIA agent Valerie Plame, who was at the center of a national firestorm that lasted for years during the presidency of George W. Bush after her name was publicly leaked.
Plame outspent Leger Fernandez about $700,000 to $383,000 during the preprimary period, but a number of outside groups, including EMILY’s List and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, have dug deep to promote Leger Fernandez. The only recent poll we’ve seen was a late May survey for EMILY that showed Leger Fernandez leading Plame 33-24.
A number of other candidates are running, including Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya, state Rep. Joseph Sanchez, First Judicial District Attorney Marco Serna, and John Blair, a former New Mexico deputy secretary of state. None, however, have anywhere near as much money behind them as Plame and Leger Fernandez, and the EMILY poll found their support in the single digits.
Pennsylvania
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
● PA-01 (D) (49-47 Clinton, 50-49 Obama): Four Democrats originally planned to challenge GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in this swing seat in the Philadelphia suburbs, but the two most prominent contenders ended up dropping out. The two remaining hopefuls are Christina Finello, who has worked as a Bucks County housing department official, and businessman Skylar Hurwitz. Finello deployed $36,000 during the preprimary period, while Hurwitz has spent close to nothing during his entire campaign.
● PA-07 (R) (49-48 Clinton, 53-46 Obama): Two Republicans are competing to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in this Lehigh Valley seat. The GOP establishment, including Donald Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have lined up behind self-funding businesswoman Lisa Scheller over 2018 primary runner-up Dean Browning, who is also a former member of the Lehigh County Commission. While Scheller has a huge financial and institutional advantage over Browning, she’s continued to run negative ads against him into the final week of the campaign.
● PA-08 (R) (53-44 Trump, 55-43 Obama): Several Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area seat that swung hard to Trump in 2016.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is backing Earl Granville, an Army veteran who lost part of his left leg in Afghanistan. However, Granville’s fundraising has been very weak, and he earned the wrong type of attention in April when the news broke that he’d trashed Donald Trump supporters as "Trump-Tards" in an Instagram post from just last year.
Also in the race are former police officer Teddy Daniels, Luzerne County Councilor Harry Haas, former Trump administration official Jim Bognet, and former Hazelton Mayor Mike Marsicano. Bognet outspent Granville $103,000 to $64,000 during the preprimary period, while the rest of the field was further behind.
● PA-10 (D) (52-43 Trump, 53-46 Romney): GOP Rep. Scott Perry only won reelection last cycle 51-49 in an unexpectedly expensive contest for this seat in the Harrisburg area, and he’ll be a Democratic target this fall. The DCCC is backing state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, who faces an intraparty challenge from attorney Tom Brier. Brier outspent DePasquale $195,000 to $85,000 during the preprimary period, though it would be a big surprise if DePasquale lost the nomination.
South Dakota
Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central Time Zone. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state. South Dakota requires candidates to win at least 35% of the vote to avoid an Aug. 11 runoff.
Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!