Taking a look at the national polling aggregate, Bernie Sanders is making a move:
My operating theory has been that Sanders can’t break past his core support in the high-teens. Polls aren’t real votes, but if this polling is accurate, I’m flat-out wrong, as he’s now in the low 20s. Interestingly, it hasn’t come at Warren’s support, which remains flat. It’s coming from … Pete Buttigieg, who continues to fade. Doesn’t feel or sound right, right? He does seem to have scooped up Tulsi Gabbard’s cast-offs. Beyond that, it must be undecideds? Who knows. Something is happening, and a five-point boost from 17-ish to 22-ish may not sound much on a scale of 0-100, but in a fragmented field, it shows that 1) Sanders did have some room to grow, and 2) you don’t need a lot of support to do well.
More importantly, in the gold-standard Iowa poll, by polling legend Ann Selzer, Sanders was leading in Iowa January 10—something that subsequent polling has pretty much confirmed. Sanders is the current favorite to win Iowa, and that suddenly really matters, as the state’s caucuses are right around the corner. And with that, let’s look at these week’s rankings. (Last week here.)
1. Biden ⬆️ (Last cattle call: 1)
You can see in the graph above, Joe Biden took a hit after the last debate, but he’s recovered since and is back to his baseline. It’s not even 30%, meaning a whopping over 70% of the party is looking at someone else. But … that’s still five points higher of second-place Sanders. That’s the funny thing about this primary. No one looks able to win. But someone has to!
Biden’s super power is his unshakable support among older Black voters. It all-but-guarantees a dominant victory in South Carolina, taking pressure off him to perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire. But don’t even count him out in those two early states! While Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are strong in the two first states, Biden is behind by just a hair (and even leading in some polls), all despite having no real organization in those early states. His weak debate performance and checkered record (putting it mildly) haven’t been enough to sink him. Being Barack Obama’s Vice President has paid countless benefits, as does the idea that he, somehow, would perform best against Donald Trump. Remember—no white male has ever gotten 63 million votes in a presidential election. Barack Obama did it twice, as did Hillary Clinton. We get more votes when our candidates look like our base. But perception is a powerful force.
Biden’s worst-case February scenario is a fourth-place finish in Iowa, a third-place finish in New Hampshire, and a victory in South Carolina. That takes a great deal of pressure off Biden heading into early March’s Super Tuesday, when about 40% of convention delegates will be awarded. Not much seems to threaten his long-term presence in the race.
2. Bernie Sanders ⬆️ (Last cattle call: 2)
That’s a BIG up arrow, as a majority of recent polls show him winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina is lost. While Sanders has made ground with young Black and Brown voters, voters of color are still his Achilles’ heel. The Achilles’ heel of every candidate not named Biden.
So game it out, he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, loses South Carolina, and scores a top-three in Nevada, and he’ll be more than well-prepared for the long-haul primary.
The big danger? Sanders’ support is disproportionately young people. Who is least likely to turn out? Young people. His challenge and that of his field organizers will be ensuring that the actual voting pool reflects the numbers seen in that polling.
3. Elizabeth Warren ⬇️ (Last cattle call: 3)
Warren’s post-debate bump is gone, back to the previous baseline. She’s not bleeding support anymore, she seems to have found solid ground, but she’s finding it difficult to regrow her support. Sanders is surging in the early states, Biden retains a stranglehold on the Black vote. Where is she going to grow her support?
Her big hope right now? She still remains the top second-choice candidate in Iowa. That means that as the marginal candidates get eliminated in the caucus process, those supporters have to move somewhere else. In fact, Iowa will report three results this year: popular vote, first ballot, and last ballot. There is a real chance that three different candidates win each, muddying the results. More possible, Sanders wins the first ballot, Warren wins the final one. That final ballot will allocate delegates and will be considered the “official” result, but no one will care.
Warren really needs to win one contest in February—Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada, or her candidacy will have a third-wheel feel to it.
No other candidate appears to have any juice. You can see Michael Bloomberg creep up over 7% in the aggregate polling above, above even Pete Buttigieg. I guess that’s what $250+ million buys you. But that’s still not enough to get delegates anywhere, and he’s not even on the ballot in any February states. Is even doing traditional campaigning, as in meeting with actual voters anywhere? Who cares.
It’s been a three-person race for a while, and it remains so. And pretty soon, we’ll have actual votes to analyze. Exciting!