Declining RB market complicates Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott holdouts

It stands to reason that every high-profile running back in the NFL is fighting to demonstrate and earn his value. It’s something every professional athlete, or even every working person, should be invested in doing.

But in the last few years, rushers have had to dig in their heels and hold their ground to do it. An ongoing perception, and in some ways a demonstrable reality, is that the running back position has been devalued. That said, as the NFL revenue pot continues to grow, no player at the top of his game feels his earning potential shouldn’t increase along the same trajectory.

That helps to explain why, as training camps get underway, two notable star running backs — San Diego's Melvin Gordon and Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott — are holding out and exploring the option of demanding trades if their current teams won’t furnish them with new long-term deals. Gordon is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2019, while Elliott is signed through 2020, after the fifth-year option on his current deal was picked up earlier this offseason.

The diminishment of the running back position can seem jarring to longtime fans of the sport, given some of the most iconic figures in NFL history are running backs: Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders — the list goes on. Fantasy football has ensured that backs are highly prized among fans, as those who serve as primarily bell-cow backs for their teams are often among the most valuable fantasy commodities.

The economic reality indicates otherwise, especially as NFL offenses are becoming more reliant on the pass. Running back is the only position in football to have its franchise tag value, the average earnings of the top five players at the position, drop over the past three years. Over the last two seasons, that figure has fallen nearly 10 percent.

Part of that decline, though certainly not all of it, was because Le’Veon Bell refused to accept the franchise tag again from the Steelers in 2018. Bell sat out the entire 2018 season, during which backup James Connor excelled in his stead. Bell got a new long-term deal with the Jets this past spring that had slightly more guaranteed money than the Steelers offered the previous summer, though less money overall. Many questioned whether Bell giving up an entire season was worth it.

Bell’s circumstances may not necessarily be top of mind for Gordon and Elliott, who would likely be concerned anyway about making top dollar. But Bell’s 2019 season could go a long way to drive the conversation about how valuable star running backs are. If Bell is a washout with the Jets, it likely will serve only to further depress the running back market. After all, it would stand as further proof to detractors that recalcitrant backs are easily replaceable and not worth a hefty investment. Having the market potentially influenced by someone other than themselves surely grants urgency for two running backs looking to cash in now.

Another ongoing drama not helpful to backs looking for new deals is the continued uncertainty regarding Todd Gurley’s health. The highest-paid back in the NFL spent the late part of his 2018 season muddled by knee issues that are unclear in their severity. Gurley reportedly shed weight over the offseason, though skipped team drills, meaning head coach Sean McVay as of a few days ago was still issuing public assurances that all is well with the All-Pro back.

Arizona’s David Johnson also didn’t exactly set the world on fire after signing his $13 million-per-season deal before the start of the 2018 season. Though he was effective bouncing back from an injury that cost him his 2017 campaign, all of his significant stats were down from his star-making 2016 season. Some of that is attributable to the Cardinals' overall offensive woes last season, though the dip still gives ammo to those down on breaking the bank to pay running backs.

Saquon Barkley being drafted second overall by the Giants in 2018 and being an overnight success would seem like an encouraging sign for those hoping for a bounce back in the running back market, yet even as Barkley proved himself an immediate star, the focus never shifted away from how the Giants had yet to secure Eli Manning’s successor as quarterback until they took Daniel Jones in the first round of the 2019 draft.

It’s worth noting that only two backs were selected in the first two rounds of this year’s draft, far fewer than the nine receivers taken and even fewer than the three tight ends selected.

All in all, it’s not a great time for running backs to be exploring their leverage, and yet it could be worse in the future, so Gordon and Elliott are drawing the line now. Recent developments suggest the odds aren’t in their favor. That the Cowboys and Chargers are coming off trips to the divisional round of the playoffs might suggest there’s pressure to have their star backs present for another run at contention. The same was true of the Steelers last year, and while they did make a competitive offer to Bell, it wasn’t what he wanted. Pittsburgh was lucky that it had a quality rusher waiting in the wings. Dallas and Los Angeles may just end up playing their luck the same way.