One-on-One: Why we like these WRs (and RB) as fantasy football sleepers

Tunison: My fantasy bona fides aren't a whole lot better. Frankly, most roto experts don't have a sparkling track record if you really pay attention to it, so shots in the dark from a couple casual duffers isn't as much of a drop-off as they'd have you believe. I haven't actually played in a few seasons because a couple leagues I was in for a while dissolved around the same time. I can, however, say that I won the title in the last season of one league, so as reigning champ in perpetuity, I clearly have quite a bit of credibility here.

The difference between the playoffs and also-ran status often comes down to nailing a couple picks. Maybe your first-rounder is just that dominating, and he stays healthy, so it's enough of a difference to carry you through a few tight matchups. Often, though, it's critical to find a consistent starter and steady producer in the middle of the draft, a player who leaps out of the sea of those that average six-point weeks to be a true backbone of your team.

I like Washington running back Derrius Guice. There are red flags, to be sure, but often the process of finding a sleeper means navigating a host of potential issues only for luck to emerge on your side. Guice missed all of his hyped rookie season last year with a preseason injury. In his stead, the 'Skins signed Adrian Peterson and the veteran ended up running for more than 1,000 yards in 2018.

That seems like prohibitive circumstances, but hear me out: AP is 34 years old and, while he exceeded expectations last year, the 'Skins would be glad for one of their younger guys to establish themselves as the starter. There's a danger that Guice gets thrown into a committee situation with AP and Chris Thompson even if he does well.

Jay Gruden is looking for his first homegrown feature back since he had the last season of Alfred Morris' run of effectiveness his first season in Washington. And AP knows what it's like to be cast aside for a young upstart -- it happened two seasons ago in New Orleans. The ceiling for Guice is high, and backs are always important, but the hype is bound to be tempered by some of those risks.  It's a flier I'd be willing to take a few rounds in.

Mueller: I have one more for you. Like most NFL coaches, I find running backs to be somewhat interchangeable in fantasy football. Or, at the very least, there are only a few worth taking with a first round pick. The rest are a crapshoot. That’s why I focus on wide receivers, who are more predictable and reliable. This might be why I never win my fantasy leagues, for what it’s worth. 

Anyway, there has been plenty of chatter in Pittsburgh about how the targets that went to Antonio Brown last season — and there were 168 of them — will be divvied up this year. It’s hard to imagine JuJu Smith-Schuster getting much more than he did last year, mainly because his 166 targets were a close second. He’ll still get the ball, but if anything, an increase in double-teams might cause Ben Roethlisberger to look elsewhere more often. 

Should he do that, his main choices are tight end Vance McDonald, WR James Washington, slot guy Ryan Switzer, Conner and RB Jaylen Samuels, to go along with rookie third-rounder Diontae Johnson, another wideout. There is one other guy, and he’s my other pick. He’s more of a deep sleeper than a breakout candidate, but if the early buzz around him is well-founded, he might be both. I’m talking about wide receiver Donte Moncrief, signed by the Steelers this off-season. 

His name has come up repeatedly as an answer when Steelers beat writers are asked who, if anyone, made a big impression during minicamp. The physical skills are there; Moncrief has good size at 6-foot-2, and plenty of speed to boot. He was a touchdown machine when he played with a healthy Andrew Luck in 2016, leading that Colts with seven TD catches. 

Luck was hurt in 2017, of course, and Moncrief played with Blake Bortles last year in Jacksonville. Neither situation seems conducive to success. Now he finds himself with Roethlisberger  on a team where touches should be spread around, and may the best man win. With Washington’s rookie year a disappointment, and no other true vertical threat on the roster, Moncrief might find himself with plenty of chances to spring big plays. 

Tunison: I find myself disregarding the Bucs in many ways after several years of assurances that they were about to make the leap into relevance. Given that they're still in a solid division, the playoffs is still a gamble I'm not necessarily comfortable making for them, but there are a few reasons I like them to put up more points, thus helping a potential fantasy sleeper.

Dirk Koetter is gone and Bruce Arians is in; Jameis Winston is in a prove-it contract year as he'll become an unrestricted free agent in 2020. For these reasons, along with the departure of DeSean Jackson, I like Chris Godwin as an ascendant fantasy player in 2019. The third-year receiver made a significant leap between years 1 and 2, and now has much more opportunity to put up numbers. In 2018, he amassed 842 yards and seven touchdowns in only five starts. Now that he's the confirmed No. 2 wideout, he's bound to improve on that if health cooperates.

Arians has said he sees Godwin, who had 59 receptions in 2018, as a "close to 100-catch guy" akin to Larry Fitzgerald, who the coach worked with in Arizona. That means nearly double the production he had in his second year. With all the promise he's shown already, and the approval of a coach who loves the pass game, there's definite reason to give him a look if he falls to a reasonable round after you've grabbed a few confirmed superstars.