What we might expect in 2019 from Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes

In 2018, with one pro start under his belt, Patrick Mahomes went from a promising young gunslinger to toast of the NFL, the MVP, and potentially one possession from the Super Bowl. Given that his season was only the third 50-touchdown passing season in NFL history, it’s reasonable to expect some regression from the Chiefs' quarterback, at least in that statistical category. 

To average more than three touchdowns per game requires a set of circumstances that in no small part are out of the quarterback’s control in many ways. And that’s before one gets to the element of luck that accounts for whether a QB is able to start all 16 regular-season games.

Of course, there’s the accepted notion of a sophomore slump in the NFL. It’s the idea that any player who had a hot first year as a starter is bound to be figured out and brought back to Earth. In some ways, Mahomes is probably better positioned than most to avoid that since technically 2019 is not even his second year in the league. While defensive coordinators have surely been studying Mahomes' game, looking for any weaknesses to exploit, he has had an extra year to view the delicate interplay between defenses and offenses, and how tactically they might go about doing that.

That the Chiefs have retained Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, after he received some looks in January on the head-coaching interview circuit, means Mahomes won’t have to worry about how a new coach might tinker with Andy Reid’s overarching schemes in his follow-up season. That will be huge for retaining the momentum of last season. While Mahomes has had more time to study going into his second full season, the learning curve of dealing with the tendencies of a new coordinator would be just the thing to throw him off, if ever so slightly.

Where there is an adjustment is making up for Kareem Hunt and potentially Tyreek Hill. Hunt, shown shoving and kicking a woman in a video, was suspended by the NFL for eight games and released by the Chiefs. (He signed with the Browns.) Hill’s status remains uncertain. The speedy wideout will almost certainly be suspended, with a decision looming in the next few weeks. One team official predicted a maximum of four games, but it would be hard to rule out more given Hill’s ugly past. 

At this point, if the Chiefs were going to release Hill, they probably would have done it once the initial news of child abuse allegations broke. As it is, Kansas City took Georgia wideout Mecole Hardman in the second round, its first pick in this year’s draft. It would be foolish to assume Hardman could immediately replicate the production of one of the top big-play receivers in the NFL. 

That means the opening month of the season has the potential for a statistical shortfall of last year, in which Mahomes closed out the first four weeks with 14 touchdowns and no picks. There’s still tight end Travis Kelce to lean on, and if Sammy Watkins can finally regain the promise of his first few years in the league, the Chiefs' offense could not miss a beat, especially when only one of their opening four games in 2019 are against a team coming off a playoff appearance. 

The loss of Hunt could be troublesome, though KC added Carlos Hyde in the off-season. Given time he missed, Hunt’s numbers won’t be exceedingly hard to replace with a committee approach, yet surely it would be nice to get back to the kind of dominating running game the Chiefs had a few years back. To the extent that opens up the passing game, it’ll prevent Mahomes from falling into the trap that he can and has to do everything.

So what would a sophomore slump look like for Mahomes? That’s somewhat of a subjective question because it depends on each person’s expectations for his growth. To some extent, with young players, there’s an unproductive expectation that stats must be perpetually getting better or else the athlete has been exposed in some way. So if Mahomes only throws for 35 touchdowns in 2019, by any measure a productive season for any starter, there will be some who say he took a step back. 

That’s a counter-productive way of thinking, as quarterbacks can make strides in their decision-making abilities and not necessarily have it reflect in the flashier stats. If other parts of the offense struggle, like pass blocking or the receiving corps, that’s naturally going to reflect on Mahomes’ numbers. If he gets anywhere within the same ballpark as 2018, that should still be considered progression, even if the more surface-level numbers don’t reflect that.

As for the Chiefs fate in 2019, most understand that falls on much more than Mahomes’ shoulders, but getting way too much credit and way too much blame comes with the territory as starting quarterback. It’s easy to assume, following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game that went to overtime, that the Chiefs should be back there on an annual basis. The Patriots, after all, make it look easy enough. But it’s important to remember that Kansas City hasn’t built that culture of winning and was making its first trip to the conference championship since 1993.

It would likely be good for the NFL for a team that isn’t the Patriots to represent the AFC this coming season, especially one fronted by a potential new face of the sport. But even the Patriots had a year of missing the playoffs after their first Super Bowl under Brady and Belichick. It’s exceedingly difficult to get on the kind of run they’ve had. If Mahomes and the Chiefs fall short in 2019, it will be good for knee-jerk takes, but they’ll also most likely be fine.