One-on-One: Examining MLB's overachievers (Yankees!), underachievers

Whitner: What team has surprised you the most in the early going, and why? 

Bell: The Twins, who have a comfortable lead over second-place Cleveland. I didn’t think they were going to be as bad as the White Sox, Royals or Tigers, but I also didn’t think Minnesota would be tearing it up as it has. Must be nice actually having Byron Buxton back around, right? His return from an injury-riddled 2018 season has coincided with what could be a breakout season from Jorge Polanco, Both have spearheaded an offense that already has 90 home runs, tied for second in the American League. 

Whitener: I’ve been surprised by how the Rockies have sputtered. The NL West looked to be a division in which the Rox would be better than every team except the Dodgers. After finishing in the National League’s top three in runs every year since 2008, they are seventh in the league in runs this season. Until their offense gets going, Colorado will struggle to rise above .500

Whitener: So which NL team that's off to an unexpectedly bad start is the most likely to turn things around? And which is least likely to? 

Bell: I am shocked the Nationals (19-31 through Wednesday), who trail the first-place Phillies by 9.5 games, are off to such a bad start. The NL East was expected to be a four-horse race, but that hasn't materialized. Here's a shocker: Max Scherzer is only 2-5, and the Nats are 2-9 in games that he has started. Perhaps Juan Soto's bat will heat up soon, but I don't see Washington turning things around.

Don't sleep on the Cardinals. Sure, they're only 25-24 through Wednesday, but the top of their lineup has power and the pitching will come around. Expect a surge from them sometime.  

Whitener: I agree on the Cardinals. Everything seems to be in place for them to be much better. Matt Carpenter had a horrid start, struggling to keep his average north of .200, which is especially brutal for a lead-off hitter. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna haven’t been able to live up to their usual standards either. The pitching staff that was supposed to be the Cardinals' backbone is underwhelming, with the NL’s 10th-lowest ERA. The good news is it seems highly unlikely that this much talent could continue to collectively underwhelm. If we see improvement, St. Louis could easily rise in a tight NL Central. 

Least likely to turn things around? I'll go with the Nationals, too. It seems like every year we hear how great they look on paper and how ready they are to take the next step. Perhaps the biggest surprise of all could be the Nationals as sellers at the trade deadline. Anthony Rendon (.325, 9 HRs) could be The Prize.

Whitner: Which manager is most likely to be sent packing first? 

Bell: If you had asked this question just a few days ago, this would have been a no-brainer. After the Mets got swept by Miami, Mickey Callaway was firmly in the hot seat, and it sure seemed like the Mets were getting ready to fire him. Then the Mets pulled a Mets and called a news conference just to have their GM say that Mickey is the guy. It’s all very strange, and it doesn’t have the feel of one of those “kiss of death” announcements that you normally hear whenever the end is near. 

I still think that Callaway will get the boot if the Mets continue to struggle, but I don’t think he’ll be the first manager in baseball to go. That has to be the Marlins' Don Mattingly. Take a look at Miami’s roster -- there is no way they are close to being seriously competitive  -- so firing Mattingly would be a shame. Derek Jeter may have expected more, but I'm not surprised the Marlins are one of baseball's worst teams.

Whitener: I think Callaway is the low-hanging fruit target, especially amid the constant mess that is the Mets, so I’ll go away from that one. Likewise, I’m not quite sure what the Marlins have to gain by firing Mattingly. What would that really change at this point? And it's not like those "crowds" of 9,700 at Marlins Park are beating down Jeter's door to fire the manager.

Instead, I’m going to go back to an all-too-familiar topic here: the Nationals. Dave Martinez could be a goner. GM Mike Rizzo has never been slow to fire a manager. I mean, this is a guy who fired both Matt Williams and Dusty Baker within a year of each leading the club to NL East titles. Martinez  has a below-.500 record in his first year and a half on the job. 

Bell: With four of the six divisions separated by six games or fewer at the top, which team could benefit the most from making a splash on the trade market?

Whitener: The Brewers need to add a starting pitcher. They decided against doing so over the winter, instead leaning on a group that somewhat overachieved a year ago. Milwaukee has counted on a deep bullpen. But after losing Corey Knebel for the year to Tommy John surgery, the pen’s depth is gone. It hasn't been as effective this year either. The key numbers: a 4.27 ERA (ninth in NL) and the most relief innings in the majors (210.2).

Adding a veteran innings eater (or two) would be a perfect fix. Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Marcus Stroman and Dallas Keuchel (remember him?) all may be available.

Bell: Nearly everything that you said about the Brewers is also true about the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta's bullpen was a weakness last season, and its struggles this season can't be ignored. The Braves' bullpen is at the top of the National League in walks allowed. They should shore up their pen.