Advice for Ezekiel Elliott: If Cowboys don't pay, stay away

The glut of high-profile Cowboys in contract years brings one of the more interesting roster-planning matrices a franchise has encountered in recent memory. Despite the team working swiftly to check off the first box on this off-season to-do list (DeMarcus Lawrence's new deal), Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones and La’el Collins still stand to be 2020 free agents.

While the Cowboys have understandably prioritized Prescott and Cooper re-ups, they may soon have a problem with a player not in a contract year. Ezekiel Elliott became extension-eligible in January but, thanks to the player-restrictive fifth-year option, is tethered to the Cowboys through 2020. 

Elliott has not yet decided to stay away from the team’s off-season program. He should.

In an era when running backs have limited opportunities to capitalize on their abilities, this situation represents an important moment on the position’s timeline. No back has meant more to his team over the past three seasons. This importance is easily visible in the workloads given to Dallas’ centerpiece. Elliott has a leverage window almost no modern running back has possessed, and the volume of touches he has accumulated should prompt immediate action.

Prescott and Cooper may be more pressing matters, but Elliott has a significantly shorter NFL shelf life and cannot be concerned with the Cowboys' macro financial strategy. Not after the evidence of the past three seasons and the risk a fourth on this pace would inject into a future negotiation, especially if a 2019 injury is part of the equation.

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley needed 44 games to accumulate the second-most touches (979) since 2016. In the same time frame, Elliott has the most touches, 1,003, in just 40 games. No running back this decade through three seasons was more involved in his team’s offense than Elliott.

Most teams have shifted to backfield committees or tilted timeshares for conservation purposes. Somewhat understandably given Elliott's talent, Dallas uses an older blueprint. Last season, Elliott was the only back given more than 270 carries (304, 43 more than second-place Saquon Barkley). In 2008, nine players exceeded 270 totes. In 1998, 14 backs got there. But Zeke's early-career regular-season workload outpaces almost everyone's. With 1,111 regular-season touches, Emmitt Smith exited his third year on an Elliott-level pace (and he waged a successful holdout through Week 2 of the 1993 season).

Elliott has not only compiled more touches per game (25.1) in his first three seasons than Smith (23.1), his per-game figure eclipses all but two men in NFL history -– Edgerrin James (1,056 touches, 27.8 per game) and LaDainian Tomlinson (1,262, 26.3) -- in that span. James and Tomlinson stayed healthy and remained top-tier backs into their late 20s, but Elliott’s deviation from the modern norm should force his representation to reconsider a holdout. 

Elliott, the 2018 rushing champion by 127 yards over Barkley, accomplished the feat in 15 games. As a rookie, the 2016 No. 4 overall pick zoomed to All-Pro acclaim with a 318-yard rushing title cushion (also in 15 games). The last player to win a rushing crown by that much: DeMarco Murray in 2014. This company further illustrates Elliott's stakes. Knowing they would let Murray walk in free agency the following March, the Cowboys gave their then-starter the most touches anyone's totaled in a season (497 counting postseason work).

If Elliott is still attached to his rookie deal in Week 1, something has gone wrong. Their Murray strategy notwithstanding, the Cowboys have been one of the best at taking care of their own. Chief operating officer Stephen Jones said earlier this year the Elliott extension talks will likely start at Gurley’s four-year, $57.5 million contract. With the Cowboys featuring a slimmer margin for error than other top NFC contenders this season, due largely to the Prescott-Jason Garrett tandem, Elliott should make the front office own that price now rather than risk going to training camp without security.

New deals for Gurley, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell over the past year blew up a stagnant running back marketplace. But the teams that authorized those contracts may have a bit of buyer’s remorse. Gurley now has a knee condition, and Johnson -– playing in a historically inept offense -– is coming off his least effective season. Bell’s new coach apparently was not on board with his $13.13M-per-year pact. None of these players have shown Elliott’s consistency.

Considering Jones deemed Elliott’s recent non-arrest arrest a non-issue regarding potential negotiations, the soon-to-be 24-year-old back should bet on his production and durability making the Cowboys cave. Though some concern about Zeke's off-field drama is warranted, the Cowboys --- who fervently stood by him during the 2017 suspension saga --- may not be able to play much poker if Elliott does demand a new contract. Evidenced by an 0-3 record (by a 92-22 combined margin) against playoff teams during Elliott’s 2017 ban, the Cowboys depend on their Pro Bowl ball carrier. This stands to supersede off-field worries about whether to pay Elliott. So should Dallas’ depth chart. 

Dallas should be ready to pay Elliott now, too. It would benefit the team to have Elliott's next contract run through his age-29 season, with the guarantees packed into the deal's earlier years, rather than delaying it further and risking guaranteed money going to a back in steep decline.

The Cowboys' endgame in this complicated off-season: assembling a long-term contender with a mid-tier quarterback. This team needs its superstar running back to make it work. Elliott must capitalize on these circumstances.