Warriors-Bucks: A way-too-early NBA Finals preview

1.  Steph Curry is unleashed like never before

Even the biggest Steph haters must admit that the five full games without Durant have been pretty fantastic. He is averaging 36 points, eight rebounds and seven assists with 47-42-95 shooting splits. This is the first time he has scored 30-plus in five straight playoff games and only the second time he has done it in four straight. (In 2015, he closed out the Grizzlies with 32 points, then eviscerated the Rockets with 34, 33 and 40 in the first three games of the Western Conference Finals.)

As a number of analysts noted when Durant went down against the Rockets, his injury would force the Dubs to revert to their bread-and-butter from their 2015 and 2016 Finals runs: the Curry-Draymond Green pick-and-roll. Because both players are great passers, the defense can either choose to guard the roll as the Blazers did in Game 1 and let Curry walk into open threes (bad idea) or it can hedge hard on Curry and watch Green go for back-to-back triple-doubles as he did in Games 3 and 4. However, unlike the Blazers, the Bucks have two excellent on-ball defenders in Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon and Giannis and Middleton as rangy defenders who can hedge, disrupt and recover. It’ll be quite the chess match, but the Bucks will be at a disadvantage with Curry as confident as he has ever been.

2.  Draymond is also peaking

Green’s Game 3 in Portland was an absolute masterpiece. He had the aforementioned triple-double, plus four steals and a block. He also produced a jaw-dropping net rating of plus-47 (offensive rating, 136,  minus defensive rating, 89, per 100 possessions) while no other Warriors starter had a positive net rating. “He was like a wrecking ball out there," Steve Kerr told reporters. "He was destroying everything in his path." Green even found some time to display his leadership skills in this cool clip of him keeping Jordan Bell’s head in the game.

We haven’t seen Green engaged and in shape like this since the 2016 season. If you recall, there were only two players Green couldn’t solve that season -– Kevin Durant and LeBron James. It’ll be interesting to see if the mutant version of the two (Giannis) can provide the same challenge.

3.  Take a moment to appreciate Thompson’s defense

Strange, but true: Thompson has never made an NBA All-Defense Team. How ridiculous is that? He matches up every night with the other team’s best backcourt player, which is often a smaller, quicker point guard. He goes up in every playoff series against the likes of James Harden or Kyrie Irving or Russell Westbrook, and every series (except the 2016 Finals), the Warriors have come out on top. 

To get a better appreciation for what Thompson does, just look at CJ McCollum’s playoff averages through the first two rounds (26 points on 46-percent shooting from the field and 41-percent shooting from three) and compare them to the series against the Warriors (22 points on 39-percent shooting from the field and 35-percent shooting from three). McCollum’s stats were much worse before a big Game 4, which he probably only had because Klay switched onto Damian Lillard, who had the early hot hand before Thompson zipped him up on crucial possessions down the stretch.

4.  The Warriors are toying with their food again

Don’t look now, but the Warriors are destroying opponents in the second half again. After Durant’s injury, they outscored the Rockets by a combined 15 points the next two fourth quarters. Then they went plus-16 on the Blazers in the fourth quarter of Game 1, plus-18 in the second half of Game 2 and plus-24 in the second half of Game 3. For good measure, they topped off Game 4 by outscoring the Blazers by 10 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

5.  The question everyone is asking

Are the Warriors better off without Durant? The answer is no -- he’s one of the two most unstoppable offensive players in the game (Curry being the other) and one hell of a defender. However, there are layers to this answer, because the Warriors are probably better off without Durant in short stints and against far inferior opponents. The final five quarters against the Rockets don’t really count because Houston spent the entire series up to that point leaning heavily on a small-ball lineup with no traditional bigs and weren’t ready to have to switch strategies on the fly. Against the Blazers, who are essentially a poor man’s version of the Warriors, the Dubs were probably better off running the Blazers’ heavy-footed big men into the ground with hundreds of pick-and-rolls as opposed to running a more isolation-heavy offense as they do when Durant is in the lineup.

Against the Bucks, who can play Giannis at center and switch almost anything with tough, versatile defenders, the Warriors will need Durant. Milwaukee will be the best defensive team the Warriors have faced during their five-Finals run. Not to mention one of the more balanced offensive teams. Without Durant, Steph, Klay and Dray would have to play the series of their lives to combat the depth of Milwaukee.

6.  The numbers were right: The Bucks are a two-way juggernaut

Last week, I wrote that the Bucks’ net rating during the regular season suggested they wouldn’t just make the Finals, they’d probably win the title. However, instead of trusting the math, I trusted the Raptors’ collective experience to prevail. After three games, this appears to be be a mistake because the Bucks have looked like a much better team. Milwaukee nearly went up 3-0 despite Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe and Nikola Mirotic combining to shoot 14 for 59 (24 percent). The Bucks were a plus-8.6 net rating in the regular season, a plus-8.3 against the Celtics in the second round and at plus-7.5 so far in this series. I might need to trust the numbers at this point.

7.  Eric Bledsoe has been terrible on offense ...

After a great regular season and first round of the playoffs, Bledsoe has been detrimental to the Bucks on offense, averaging 12 points, four rebounds and four assists on abysmal 35-20-63 shooting splits. (Yes, you read that correctly.) While he can still bring it on defense, his shooting and shot selection must improve dramatically if the Bucks are going to win this very winnable series against the Raptors. Moreover, he’ll have to play like he did in the Bucks’ two regular-season contests against the Dubs. In those games, he was highly efficient from the field, including a game in which he hit 10 of 12 shots and finished with 26 points, six assists and a plus-30 on/off box score.

8. ... but George Hill and Malcolm Brogdon have been excellent

Fortunately for the Bucks, Hill has turned back the clock these playoffs, and Malcolm Brogdon has picked up right where he left off before his late-season injury. Hill has scored at least 10 points in eight of the Bucks’ 12 playoff games –- all wins until Game 3 against the Raptors. (In that game, he scored 24 points on nine shots!) Hill struggled mightily against the Warriors last season as a starter, so he’d be better coming off the bench and playing fewer minutes against Steph and Klay this time around.

Brogdon, who has played four games in these playoffs, is averaging 15 points, four rebounds and three assists. He's shooting his customary 50 percent from the field and 44 percent from three. In a potential matchup with Golden State, Milwaukee needs Brogdon to maintain his offensive efficiency and slow Curry and Thompson on the other end.

9.  Bucks are struggling in the half court

Per ESPN's Zach Lowe, the Bucks are scoring a measly 0.8 points per possession in the half court against the Raptors. For context, that would make them, by far, the worst offense in the league in the regular season as every team averaged over 1.02 points per possession. Obviously, it’s tough to score when you’re going up against elite defensive players Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry. However, if they can’t figure it out against the Raptors, they won’t figure it out against Draymond, Klay, KD and Andre Iguodala either.

10.  But they continue to dominate in the open court

We all know how much the Warriors love to get out and run in the open court -- they are averaging 16.4 fast-break points per playoff game. For once, however, that might not be such a smart move. That’s because the Bucks average a whopping 22.3 fast-break points per game and have the most unstoppable open-court player in the game in Giannis, as well as Bledsoe, Middleton and Pat Connaughton filling the wings and three-point shooting bigs Brook Lopez and Mirotic trailing the break. One of the coolest mental battles of this series would be seeing whether Giannis could make the correct attack-vs.-pass decision against a bevy of brilliant, savvy Golden State players.

WAY-TOO-EARLY PREDICTION: Assuming KD plays, Warriors in 6. (Now, please go to New York.)