Why each No. 1 seed could be this year's Virginia

Before the 2018 NCAA Tournament, 16 seeds were 0-132 in their collective quest to knock off a No. 1 seed. Now? Now they’re 1-135. UMBC’s victory over Virginia was stunning for the fact that it happened, thrilling for the fact that it featured big play after big play and surreal for the fact that the Retrievers took the Cavaliers to the woodshed and drilled them by 20 points, turning a tie game at the half into a historic rout.

Virginia is back as a No. 1 seed this year, along with two of its ACC brethren, North Carolina and Duke, as well as Gonzaga. Asking for lightning to strike twice in two years might be a little much, but let’s take a look at a few reasons why each No. 1 seed might go down in flames in the first round this year.

Duke

The Blue Devils have the most top-shelf talent in the country. No one’s best three are as good as Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish. Truth be told, Duke’s second string at every position could play all 40 minutes, and the Blue Devils would still likely beat NC Central or North Dakota State by double digits. North Dakota State played Gonzaga earlier this year and lost by 42, if you’re searching for a game against a team comparable to Duke. NC Central has also been routed by every tournament-quality opponent it has played this year. Still, stranger things have happened. For instance, the shoe of the best player in the country exploded on national television and he sprained his knee, causing him to miss significant time. So that could derail Duke, I suppose.

Beyond that, though, the only way for the top overall seed to lose would be for its best players to inexplicably get into serious early foul trouble, sit the majority of the first half then have either North Dakota State or NC Central shoot an astonishing percentage, particularly from three-point range. That’s considerably easier said than done against Duke, because for all the press it gets for its offense, it's a long, disruptive team on defense as well.

Gonzaga

The Bulldogs have just four wins over tournament teams, and when we last saw them, St. Mary’s was holding them to 47 points en route to a shocking 60-47 victory in the West Coast Tournament finals. The Gaels were not going to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference’s automatic bid, so seeing Gonzaga lose to such an average team so recently makes one think that it just might be ripe for the picking — just probably not in the first round. If Fairleigh Dickinson wins the right to take on the Bulldogs, its plan will be simple: Let fly from beyond the arc and hope for the best. The Knights shot 40.3 percent from deep as a team, good for fifth-best in the entire country. Thing of it is, many of those made threes came against NEC competition, and Gonzaga is exponentially more talented than teams from that conference. The Bulldogs beat a full-strength Duke squad, barely lost to Tennessee and weren’t routed by North Carolina. They have the top-scoring offense in the nation, and they belong in any discussion of the best teams in the country.

If Prairie View A&M wins, it will not be reliant on threes, as it was one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, barely making 31 percent of its attempts. It’ll instead have to try and find a way to do what it does best, which is get to the foul line. Prairie View attempted and made the fifth-most foul shots in the country, though it shot a touch below 70 percent from the line as a team. Again, though, getting to the line will be much tougher against an athletic Gonzaga team that won’t allow penetration easily and has a significant height advantage. Unless the Bulldogs have a spectacularly poor night shooting, though, either of their potential first-round opponents will probably be in big trouble.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels were one of the hottest teams in the country entering the ACC Tournament, and their narrow loss to Duke didn’t exactly spark fears that they would be letdown-prone in the NCAA Tournament. Iona, champions of the MAAC, doesn’t cut the profile of a team that could shock the world, but if it were to do so, it would likely involve getting to the foul line with regularity and converting at a high percentage from the charity stripe. Iona would also need a hot shooting night from three-point range, but it was only average in that department this season.

North Carolina’s biggest weakness is hard to pin down, but one thing that does jump out when you look at its losses is that when the Tar Heels go down, it is often lopsided. Their “big three” of Cameron Johnson, Coby White and Luke Maye is a formidable combination of size, shooting and pure scoring ability, but if two of those three players happen to have off nights, then Iona might be able to hang around for a half or more. Also, if the Gaels can find a way to keep North Carolina off the glass, it could make things interesting. That is a big ask, given that Roy Williams’ team is the best at rebounding in the country.

Virginia
Ah, Virginia. The Cavaliers, until they prove otherwise, are the No. 1 seed with the best chance of getting knocked off in the first round. And while UVA fans might not want to read that, it’s the price their team has to pay after getting trounced by 20 points in last year’s historic upset. The difference between that team and this one is simple: This iteration of Virginia is more offensively potent. Last year’s team didn’t have De’Andre Hunter’s services, and as a possible NBA lottery pick, he may have had the talent to snap the Cavaliers out of their offensive funk against UMBC. Too often when the shot clock was running down, Virginia didn’t have a good plan. This year’s team hits 40.9 percent of its threes, good for fourth in the nation, and seems much more polished on offense.

Still, even with better offense and Hunter around, the knock on Virginia, and the reason it has the best chance of any one seed of losing, is that its defense is still its meal ticket. The Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense, but Gardner-Webb shoots the three-pointer with aplomb, connecting on 39.1 percent of its attempts as a team, good for 12^th in the country. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs get going early and plant a seed of doubt and Virginia stagnates offensively or simply doesn’t hit open looks, the specter of last year will rear its ugly head, and there might not be that built-in confidence that allows Virginia to turn the tide with a decisive run. Virginia should win comfortably, but you’ll forgive fans in Charlottesville if they’re holding their breath until things are well in hand.