The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TN-Sen: On Monday, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander announced that he would not seek a fourth term in 2020. Alexander sounded eager to run again last month, so this decision comes as a surprise. However, the senator now says that he'd made his choice all the way back in August.
Campaign Action
Tennessee is a reliably red state, and Team Red will be heavily favored to keep this seat. Naturally, there's no shortage of possible Volunteer State Republicans who could get in. The biggest name to watch is termed-out Gov. Bill Haslam, who said on Monday that he was giving a run "serious consideration." Haslam, who will leave office in mid-January, publicly flirted with running in 2017 after Sen. Bob Corker decided to retire, but he ended up passing.
Last week, the Nashville Post also reported that orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi, who is close to former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, was considering a bid in the event the seat opened up. In additon, GOP operatives have mentioned wealthy businessman and U.S. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty. While Hagerty hasn't said anything publicly yet, Alexander named both him and Haslam as "obvious favorites ... in addition to four or five of our congressmen."
Speaking of those congressmen, Politico writes that Rep. David Kustoff, who represents part of West Tennessee, is interested, but he's also not said anything publicly about his plans. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, who represents the Chattanooga area, spoke and didn't rule anything out, saying he was "solely focused on the responsibilities of my current role for the time being."
Politico adds that Rep.-elect Mark Green "had begun making calls to some Republicans touting his potential as a statewide candidate prior to Alexander's retirement." Green made the bad kind of national headlines last week when he suggested that the Centers for Disease Control was hiding data on a link between vaccines and autism, but that didn't stop the radical anti-tax Club For Growth from encouraging him to jump in on Monday.
A number of other Republicans have been mentioned in the media as potential candidates, though there's no word yet how interested any of them are. They include outgoing Rep. Diane Black; businessman and outgoing state House Speaker Beth Harwell, who both lost the 2018 primary for governor to Bill Lee. There's also former Rep. Stephen Fincher, who still has $1.7 million in the bank after his abortive 2018 Senate run; and businessman Jeff Webb. Peyton Manning, who played football at the University of Tennessee before he went on to NFL stardom, is also perennially mentioned as a possible candidate for office in Tennessee.
Alexander's departure ends a very long career in Tennessee and national politics that included two terms as governor, service as president of the University of Tennessee, a stint as George H.W. Bush's secretary of education, two unsuccessful presidential campaigns, and three terms in the U.S. Senate. Before all that, though, Alexander worked as an aide to GOP Sen. Howard Baker and Bryce Harlow, Nixon's congressional liaison, in D.C.. Alexander then returned home in 1970 to serve as campaign manager for Winfield Dunn's gubernatorial bid, which Dunn won to become the state's first Republican governor in 48 years.
State law at the time prevented governors from seeking re-election, so in 1974, Alexander ran to succeed his old boss. However, his campaign took place in a year where the Republican Party brand had been badly damaged by the Watergate scandal, and it didn't go so well. Alexander won the primary after being outspent, but some newspapers chronicled his victory with the unhelpful headline "Pre-Watergate Nixon Aide Wins Nomination." Former Rep. Ray Blanton, the Democratic nominee, also cast Alexander as the disgraced former president's "choir boy."
Alexander went after Blanton, who had badly lost his 1972 Senate bid to Baker, by hitting the Democrat for frequently missing votes in Congress; Alexander also didn't hesitate to tie himself to the popular Baker. However, Alexander would admit later during the campaign, "I didn't have a very clear message, and I wasn't ready for the general election." Blanton ended up winning by a wide 55-44 margin, though that was still well below the 60 percent of the vote that he'd publicly predicted he'd get.
Alexander would run again four years later, and this time, things would go very differently. Blanton's tenure was marred by several scandals, including accusations that he'd granted clemency in exchange for cash payments. While the state constitution had since been altered to allow governors to seek a second term, Blanton decided not to. However, that didn't stop Alexander from tying his Democratic rival, banker Jake Butcher, to the governor, asking voters, "Why would you replace a small-time wheeler and dealer with a big-time wheeler and dealer?"
Alexander also famously walked more than 1,000 miles across the state, chalking an X in the road wherever he stopped each night. He was hit by a pickup truck on his ninth day, but resumed campaigning after three days of rest. Alexander ended up winning 56-44, almost the mirror image of his defeat four years earlier.
Alexander also ended up taking office three days ahead of schedule under some unusual circumstances. In December, a trio of Blanton aides were charged with accepting money in exchange for approving paroles. Unsurprisingly, it looked incredibly bad when the governor soon thereafter commuted the prison terms of 52 state inmates, including a convicted murder who happened to be the son of one of Blanton's wealthy supporters.
Alexander recounted that at noon on Jan. 15, he received a call from the U.S. attorney leading the investigation warning him that Blanton was about to release at least one person targeted in the parole scandal. After a series of hectic phone calls, the Democratic leaders of the legislature and state Attorney General William Leech agreed that Alexander needed to be sworn in immediately.
Leech issued an option saying that the state constitution allowed the new governor to take office anytime after midnight of Jan. 15, so Alexander could immediately take over. Leech called up Blanton and says he told him, "Governor, this is General Leech. I just wanted to call you myself and let you know that in a few minutes, Lamar Alexander will take the oath of office." Leech recounts that Blanton, while angry, accepted his fate: A few minutes later, Alexander was indeed governor.
Alexander's tenure went far smoother than his predecessor's had. He was credited with persuading both Nissan and GM to open plants in the state, and in 1982, was re-elected 60-40. Alexander used his second term to successfully push for an education overhaul that included merit pay for teachers, a policy he pushed through the legislature on his second try over the loud objections of the Tennessee Education Association. To fund this program, Alexander also won approval for a 1-cent sales tax, which was the largest tax increase in state history, as well as three gas tax hikes to fund road improvements.
Alexander was termed-out in 1986, and he went on to become president of the University of Tennessee. In 1991, he was confirmed as George H.W. Bush's secretary of education, where he remained for the rest of the Bush presidency.
In 1995, Alexander, clad in a red plaid shirt, launched a bid for the GOP nomination for president. In a campaign that foreshadowed Jeb Bush's own run 20 years later, Alexander used placards identifying him as "Lamar!"—complete with exclamation mark—while struggling to generate excitement in the flesh. He also tried to convince voters of his electability with the tagline "Alexander Beats Clinton," but he didn't sell many voters on that, either.
Alexander himself joked about how little name recognition he had, but the national media finally paid attention to him after he finished third in the Iowa caucus. After likewise finishing third in New Hampshire, he briefly emerged as frontrunner Bob Dole's most serious establishment rival. However, Dole hit Alexander with ads attacking his personal financial dealings, and Alexander struggled to even place second in any further primaries. Ultimately, he ended up dropping out before Super Tuesday.
Alexander ran for president again in 2000, this time without the plaid shirt. He went after frontrunner George W. Bush, declaring that the Texas governor's "compassionate conservative" pitch amounted to just "weasel words." However, Alexander ran out of money and exited the race before 1999 was out.
In something of a surprise final act, Alexander got another chance to serve in the federal government after GOP Sen. Fred Thompson retired in 2002. The White House feared that Democrats could very well win the seat, especially if conservative Rep. Ed Bryant, who was one of the floor manager's in Bill Clinton's impeachment trial, won the GOP primary. Bush tried to clear the field for his old political rival, and he even had Karl Rove contact Bryant to try to convince him to drop out.
Bryant didn't listen and slammed Alexander as a liberal who had left Tennessee behind long ago to chase votes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite the attacks, Alexander ended up beating Bryant 54-43 and defeating Democratic Rep. Bob Clement by a similar margin.
Alexander was usually a reliable Republican vote in the Senate, but he occasionally would cross party lines. In 2009, for example, he was one of nine Republicans to vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, and even when Alexander voted with the GOP, he was rarely a partisan firebrand.
For a time, it looked like Alexander's old moderate image would cause him problems. In 2014, he was one of several Republican senators who drew a primary challenge from anti-establishment tea party candidates. Alexander was somewhat lucky, since his main opponent, state Rep. Joe Carr, had a tough time raising money or attracting major outside support. The incumbent also did a better job staying in touch with the state GOP base than some of his colleagues had. However, Carr held him to a 50-41 win, which indicated that Alexander might have been in for a tougher primary had he run in 2020.
Senate
● GA-Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently listed businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico, who was Team Blue's 2018 nominee for lieutenant governor, as a possible opponent for GOP Sen. David Perdue. The paper classifies Amico as having not ruled it out, but there's no quote from her. In November, Amico lost to Republican Geoff Duncan 52-48.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke was forced to resign from Donald Trump's cabinet over the weekend in the face of numerous investigations looking into his real estate dealings and his conduct in office. And believe it or not, it still doesn't look like the former Montana congressman is eyeing a 2020 bid for governor to fill his soon-to-be plentiful free time, though some local politicos aren't quite convinced.
Back in November, when there were rumors swirling that Zinke's days at the Department of the Interior were numbered, he said he would not run to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. The New York Times reported on Sunday after Zinke's ouster that he had also recently told "a number of significant players in Montana politics" that he wasn't planning to seek this post.
However, the paper added that some of those power players are still speculating that Zinke wanted to wait for the numerous investigations against him to run their course "so that he can begin a campaign in top form with those troubles behind him." That very much seems like wishful thinking, and other Montana politicos think that he's just more interested in staying in D.C. rather than getting back into state politics.
● UT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox is one of many Utah Republicans who has expressed interest in running to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert, and he's getting some early help from his would-be-predecessor. Herbert will host a January fundraiser for Cox, and the event announcement did not specify what race the donations would go to.
House
● CA-???: Former Trump aide George Papadopoulos, who just finished a 12-day stint in jail for lying to the FBI, said last week that he was considering running as a Republican for a U.S. House seat in Orange County. Papadopoulos, who currently lives in neighboring Los Angeles County, does not seem to have hinted at which seat he'd like to carpetbag to.
● NC-09: In a bizarre about-face, the North Carolina Republican Party is once again demanding that the state Board of Elections certify the results of the tainted race in the 9th Congressional District, less than a week after state party executive director Dallas Woodhouse all but called for a new election. Woodhouse, rather impossibly, claims that his position "has not changed"; rather, he insists, the state GOP is only objecting to the fact that the board has delayed a public hearing on the matter until Jan. 11 and has not produced "one iota of public evidence" that wrongdoing altered the outcome in the 9th.
Of course, it's impossible to square these two things. If, as Woodhouse briefly purported to, you believe that the widespread allegations of election fraud merit a thorough investigation, then you need to allow the necessary time for that investigation to proceed. Had the board instead tried to rush matters rather than conduct a serious inquiry, then Republicans would be howling about a lack of "due process."
It almost feels like Donald Trump called someone to complain that the North Carolina GOP wasn't "fighting hard enough," but the fact of the matter is, it doesn't matter what Woodhouse and his party think. The board is almost certainly going to order a new election just as soon as it's ready, and in the meantime, it's not going to allow Mark Harris to be seated when Congress convenes on Jan. 3.
And while the investigations continue to unfold, the biggest name who could replace Harris in a do-over has finally acknowledged he's weighing a bid. That, of course, would be outgoing Rep. Robert Pittenger, whom Harris narrowly defeated in this year's primary—a race in which Pittenger's staff also alleged Harris' campaign committed fraud. Previously, Pittenger had fobbed off questions about his interest, but now says he plans to "give more consideration" to the idea after the board concludes its inquiry. (Unlike Woodhouse, Pittenger understands the virtues of patience, saying, "I just think we ought to wait for this evidentiary hearing and let all the facts come out.")
One other new possibility is former state Rep. Andy Dulin, who did not respond to inquiries from WSOC-TV. Dulin lost his bid for re-election last month to Democrat Brandon Lofton by a 52-48 margin.
● NM-02: Even though we're now six weeks out from the 2018 midterms, Republican Yvette Herrell still hasn't conceded to Democratic Rep.-elect Xochitl Torres Small, who won New Mexico's open 2nd District 51-49 in a race that wasn't called until the day after Election Day thanks to absentee ballots. Like many of her fellow Republicans, who've decided that elections aren't legitimate when Democrats win them, Herrell has been busy sowing vague doubts about the democratic process—and, naturally, refusing to substantiate any of her claims.
In a recent Facebook post, Herrell insisted her team was analyzing "various reports of inconsistencies" in the vote, but as the Las Cruces Sun News notes, Herrell has "declined to respond to numerous queries" from local media outlets about her complaints. Of course, that hasn't stopped her from ranting about alleged election fraud on Fox News. Meanwhile, the local Republican Party in Doña Ana County (home of Las Cruces, New Mexico's second-largest city) also went on Facebook to assert that Herrell has until Jan. 6 to file a formal challenge to the results under state law.
According to local reporter Joe Monahan, unnamed "GOP insiders" say that Herrell won't actually pursue such a challenge, but whatever path she takes, she seems intent on crafting a narrative that she was robbed by thieving Democrats. That will allow her to fuel the grievances of her hardcore supporters (who certainly don't care about such things as a "lack of evidence") if she pursues a rematch—which Monahan's sources say she's already preparing to do.
But she may not get another shot. One possible rival Monahan mentions is former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, whom Herrell beat 49-32 in this year's GOP primary in part by positioning herself as the conservative darling. Perhaps looming larger is Rep. Steve Pearce, who hasn't ruled out another run himself after leaving this seat open to wage an unsuccessful bid for governor. Monahan says, though, that there's no word on when Herrell might make a formal announcement about a second campaign.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We have two races on tap for Tuesday:
Georgia HD-14: This is a Republican seat in northwest Georgia, covering parts of Bartow and Floyd Counties. This vacancy was created when former state Rep. Christian Coomer was sworn in as a Georgia Court of Appeals judge just before the general election. In an unusual twist, Georgia state law stipulates that, because Coomer was running for re-election to the state House unopposed, this election will be a Republican primary that functions as a de facto general election.
There are four Republicans on the ballot: pastor Ken Coomer, who is the father of the former state representative; businesswoman Nickie Leighly; former Bartow County Probate Judge Mitchell Scroggins; and businessman Nathan Wilson. In the event no candidate takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election on Jan. 15. This is a heavily Republican seat that went for Donald Trump 80-17 in 2016 and Mitt Romney 78-20 in 2012.
Virginia HD-24: This is a Republican seat in western Virginia, comprised mostly of Rockbridge, Amherst and Augusta Counties. This vacancy was created by Del. Ben Cline's election to the U.S. House in Virginia's 6th Congressional District. Democrat Christian Worth will face off against Republican Ronnie Campbell. Worth dominated in the Democratic primary, taking 76 percent of the vote in a three-candidate field. Campbell, by contrast, barely escaped with the GOP nomination, winning by a single vote over former Amherst County Sheriff Jimmy Ayers.
This is a deep red seat that went for Donald Trump 64-31 over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 61-37 for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012.