10 bowl games that could end in upsets

When the college football season ended, in a flash our Saturdays went from excitement-filled to dead as a doornail. Fortunately, we needn't mourn for long — bowl season officially kicks off this week, and if we're lucky, that means one thing: upset city, baby. There are some great matchups this year, and we're tracking the ones most likely to end in upside-down fashion.

Las Vegas Bowl: No. 21 Fresno St. vs. Arizona St.

Perhaps it's because the Mountain West isn't exactly a ratings draw, but there aren't enough people talking about the job Jeff Tedford has done with the Bulldogs. Fresno State hadn't won a bowl game since 2007 when he took the reins in 2017. Now the Bulldogs are league champions looking for a second straight bowl win. They have an excellent, mobile quarterback in Marcus McMaryion, who should prove an intriguing matchup for Arizona State's young defense. The Sun Devils rather quietly played to a 7-5 finish in the first year under Herm Edwards, good enough for second in the Pac-12. Their defense is much improved in just a year, and they have the league's leading rusher in Eno Benjamin. Fresno St. is a slight favorite, but look for the Sun Devils to come out fired up and cause some problems for the Bulldogs.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan vs. BYU

BYU should be on high upset alert as they get ready to take on the Broncos. WMU freshman QB Kaleb Eleby, who took over for the injured Jon Wassink, provided a much-needed spark for the Broncos in their regular-season finale over Northern Illinois. True, the Cougars' defense will be the toughest Eleby has faced in his young career, but his team as a whole has performed admirably when it's gone up against teams that rely on defense to get the job done. BYU has had an up-and-down season (after making a quarterback change of its own) and is coming off a tough loss to Utah. The Broncos have all the momentum heading into this one.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Miami vs. Wisconsin

My, does this have the makings of a fun one. After losing to the Badgers in last year's Orange Bowl, Miami is the slight favorite this time around. A lot of variables remain. The Hurricanes' vaunted D-line against the Badgers' O-line and elite running back Jonathan Taylor? Miami's young quarterback N'Kosi Perry against Wisconsin's young and inconsistent secondary? The Badgers ended the season with a tough home loss to Minnesota, in which QB Alex Hornibrook threw three picks. Wisconsin definitely has a shot to come out on top in this one, but Hornibrook will have to perform better against the edge rush. 

Music City Bowl: Purdue vs. Auburn

When the season started, it seemed unfathomable that the Tigers would end the season as a slight 4-point favorite in their matchup with, of all teams, Purdue. But then Auburn lost three crucial conference contests, and Purdue knocked off three ranked opponents. Perhaps the most intriguing head-to-head battle here is that of Purdue's revelatory running back Rondale Moore against the Tigers' tough-as-nails D-line. If there's one hallmark of this Boilermakers squad, it's that it can show up in the big game, and there's little reason to think it won't do so in the postseason. 

Alamo Bowl: No. 24 Iowa St. vs. No. 13 Washington St.

For a while there, it seemed like Washington St. couldn’t really be stopped. The Cougars rattled off seven wins down the stretch, knocking off Stanford and Oregon along the way. But the Apple Cup proved that Gardner Minshew can be contained, and the Cyclones could very well be the next team to do it. Iowa St. has faced a plethora of high-flying offenses this season and responded well, beating Oklahoma St. and West Virginia along the way. With a unit that led the Big 12 in scoring defense this season, the Cyclones have the ability to slow Minshew, the nation’s second-leading passer — but it’ll be their biggest test of the season.

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Florida vs. No. 7 Michigan

Oh, how quickly the Wolverines went from “lock for the playoff” to “likely upset victim.” Yes, Michigan still has the nation’s top defense, but it’ll be without one of its best players. Rashan Gary has decided to sit out the game to prep for the NFL Draft. He will be missed. Florida has won every game in which it has rushed for 200 or more yards, and it's done that eight times this season. Gators QB Feleipe Franks has been hit or miss when facing elite defenses, but Florida regrouped after tough losses to Georgia and Missouri to finish the season with three straight wins. If the Gators can ride that momentum into the Peach Bowl, they’ve got a real shot to take the wind out of Michigan’s already sagging sails.  

Sun Bowl: Stanford vs. Pittsburgh

It’s been a weirdly bad year for Stanford and a weirdly good year for Pitt. The Panthers won the ACC Coastal Division and earned their first-ever trip to the title game. The Cardinal entered the year with visions of playoff berths dancing in their heads and have ended with their worst regular-season record in the last five years. Still, Stanford is favored in the Sun Bowl. But in a way, Pitt’s dismantling at the hands of Clemson in the league title game works in its favor. The Panthers have already faced the best defense the nation has to offer, and Kenny Pickett and Co. have a lot of time to make the necessary adjustments before they face the Card.

Citrus Bowl: No. 14 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Penn St.

No matter the outcome of this game, it’s been one of the best years in the history of Kentucky football. With nine wins and a winning record in conference play for the first time in many decades, it feels like this Wildcats season has a little bit of magic to it. Kentucky has already dropped two ranked opponents this year, so the moment won’t feel too big — but it’ll all come down to how the Wildcats deal with Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley. One of the biggest surprises of the year has been Kentucky’s top-10 scoring defense, and PSU’s offense has been something of a disappointment.

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Washington vs. No. 6 Ohio St.

There’s a lot to look forward to in this contest. In the midst of their early exit from the playoff conversation, many seem to have forgotten that the Huskies still have one of the nation’s best defenses — a unit flush with faces we’ll be seeing on Sundays. Add to that one of the game’s top offenses and gunslingers in Dwayne Haskins, and you’ve got a serious showdown. Don’t let Washington’s three losses fool you— it has an arsenal full of tools that can create problems for the Buckeyes’ patchy defense. Myles Gaskin ran all over a similarly built Washington State program.

Sugar Bowl: No. 15 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia 

To be sure, the Bulldogs were just one win away from a second straight playoff berth, and the Longhorns, while on the rise, are still doing some rebuilding. The Bulldogs are the more complete team, with a stingy defense, an elite quarterback and an impressive ground game led by D’Andre Swift. But Texas has as crafty and versatile a quarterback as it's had in years in Sam Ehlinger, as well as a pair of targets who can do damage in space. Aside from dropping their season opener to Maryland, all of the Longhorns losses are good ones, and they’ve proved they can hang in or get the better of the nation’s top teams.