Thanks to federal judges, just about every outstanding ballot will be counted in Georgia—at least tens of thousands more votes than would have been counted if now-former secretary of state Brian Kemp, Abrams’ opponent, had his way.
On Nov. 12, Judge Amy Totenberg of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia ordered the secretary of state’s office to create and promote “a secure and free-access hotline or website for provisional ballot voters to access to determine whether their provisional ballots were counted and if not, the reason why” and to ensure that all “159 county election superintendents” do the same.
Relatedly, the ruling imposed requirements to ensure provisional ballots are carefully reviewed. Finally, the court barred the secretary of state from certifying—or declaring final—the election results before close of business on November 16, a Friday.
The judge determined that “[t]his remedy is necessary and warranted” given the urgency of the situation, the evidence—see, e.g., Kemp’s shenanigans—and “the fundamental importance of the interest of the voters that cannot be remedied after final certification.”
A day later, on Nov. 13, Judge Leigh Martin May, also of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, ruled that Gwinnett County, the epicenter of a number of shady voter suppression happenings, can’t throw out absentee ballots over date of birth errors, like omitting the DOB or writing in the wrong year.
“This decision is not based on evaluating potential harm to any individual candidate,” wrote May, focusing, as Abrams has, on voters’ rights. “Instead, it is focused on the right of individuals to have their votes counted.”
May’s ruling follows a fight over Georgia’s “signature-matching” requirement, which both the federal district and the appellate court rejected in early November. That ruling, of course, came at the same time as another ordering Georgia to permit 3,000 naturalized citizens to vote.
All of this is bad news for Kemp, who was counting on his voter suppression tactics to widen his margin. But what do these rulings mean for Stacey Abrams? Each one takes her closer to a runoff, triggered when neither candidate breaks the threshold of 50 percent plus one vote.
Talia Borodin, of Amaro Science, has created an interactive calculator. Here’s a shot of her starting figures, based on the assumption that roughly 60 percent of outstanding ballots favor Abrams.
If Abrams closes the gap to within 1 percentage point, she can also call for a recount; she’s said she’ll do so. Feel free to play with the numbers.
Stacey Abrams is proving why it is that Democrats must fight to have every ballot counted, not just for the sake of victory but for democratic values. See also: Kysten Sinema. Fight on, Abrams!