The WaPo had a series of excellent stories yesterday and today. It all fits with the idea of a House victory and blue wave (the Senate is another story).
Michael Scherer and Robert Costa/WaPo:
In Trump country, Republican candidates this year fall flat
A number of Republicans running for governor or senator in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, including several who hitched their wagon to Trump’s political movement, are behind in polls by double digits, a remarkable turnabout in swing states that were key to the president’s 2016 victory.
Scott Clement and Dan Balz/WaPo:
Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections
Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House.
Amy Gardner/WaPo:
GOP claims of voter fraud threat fuel worries about ballot access in November
Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who enforces state election laws and is also the GOP gubernatorial nominee, said the focus on the suspended voter registrations is a crisis manufactured by his Democratic opponent.
“While outside agitators disparage this office and falsely attack us, we have kept our heads down and remained focused on ensuring secure, accessible, and fair elections for all voters,” he said in a statement last week in which he touted Georgia’s record number of registered voters.
Philip Rucker ,Carol D. Leonnig and Anne Gearan/WaPo:
Two princes: Kushner now faces a reckoning for Trump’s bet on the heir to the Saudi throne
The president’s son-in-law has carefully cultivated a close partnership with the heir to the Saudi throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom Kushner has championed as a reformer poised to usher the ultraconservative, oil-rich monarchy into modernity.
But the U.S.-Saudi alliance — and the relationship between Kushner, 37, and Mohammed, 33 — is now imperiled by the unexplained disappearance and alleged gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist who had been living in the United States and wrote columns for The Washington Post. The suspected killing has sparked international outcry and calls for tough punishment of Riyadh.
Jared’s betting on this all blowing over (the Republicans’ favorite term). Well, screw you Jared, it’s not. Khashoggi’s murder has your fingerprints all over it.
Harry Enten/CNN (autoplay):
The Forecast: Democratic hopes of taking the Senate look as dim as ever
House forecast: Democrats will win 229 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 206 seats. A Democratic win of 205 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error.
Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error….
For 2020 presidential implications, however, the forecast has good news for Democrats. President Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 because he broke the Democratic stranglehold on the Midwest. Specifically, he took Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Without these states, he would have lost to Hillary Clinton. Trump also came close to winning Minnesota, which no Republican presidential candidate has done since Richard Nixon.
Democrats probably have to win back a good chunk of these states in 2020 to win the presidency.
All of these states except Iowa have a Senate race in 2018, and Democrats lead in all of them.
And here’s your dose of cold water.
Riding high on optimism – but can Democrats really deliver at the midterms?
Public confidence in polling has been sorely undermined since 2016, when virtually every pundit and poll failed to foresee a Trump victory. But in lieu of hard facts, every new poll that indicates a strengthened Republican lead in traditional strongholds like Tennessee and Texas heightens the impression that they have momentum.
Add to the mix that Trump is back in full cry night after night telling his rallies about the danger posed to America by Democrats who he claims have become an “angry leftwing mob”.
Trump is exuding triumphalism after Kavanaugh’s confirmation and has racked up a few more political wins: a rewritten trade deal with Canada and Mexico, unemployment at a historic low of 3.9% and an economy growing at 4%.
So, is the great Democratic surge about to collapse?
No, but it’s a nice story line.
First, the number of registered Democrats in the district [NJ 07] has increased by 33,000 since 2014. The same pattern is visible in at least 19 key seats across the country
Then there are the women.
That’s a nicer story line.