NFL Championship Weekend Predictions: History will be made in the NFC

Last week in this space, the Jaguars weren’t taken very seriously, particularly their quarterback, Blake Bortles. That won’t happen again. Bortles wasn’t spectacular, but he was poised, efficient and converted several backbreaking third downs against a Steelers team that seemed one big play away from finally seizing momentum and control of the game. He used his legs when he had to, made the easy throws look easy, and otherwise let his running game and defense do their thing.

Speaking of that running game — if Leonard Fournette’s ankle is healthy, Jacksonville would do well to feed him the football in this one. Defensively, the Jags have the pieces to make this interesting. Their secondary is well-known and well-respected, their linebackers are second to none in pursuit, and while their run defense is suspect at times, especially right up the gut, it held up against Pittsburgh. Oh, and Jacksonville can get after the quarterback without blitzing.

New England is not Pittsburgh. The Pats won’t talk this week, which makes it similar to every other week in Foxborough. They will plan and prepare. It stands to reason that much of their preparation will focus on exploiting the middle of the Jaguars’ defense, both in the run and the pass game. As good as Jacksonville is in coverage, the Jags still got shredded by the Steelers and figure to have few answers for Rob Gronkowski. Dion Lewis is the kind of slippery runner who should be able to slide through cracks and gain good yardage on the ground.

New England’s defense also figures to make life more difficult for Bortles than the Steelers did, by actually collapsing the pocket and not letting receivers run free out of the backfield. The recipe for New England is pretty simple: protect Brady, don’t turn the ball over and force Jacksonville to play from behind. If Pats do that, they should win.

One interesting statistic about this game: It marks the fourth time since 1990 that the league’s top passer and top pass defense meet in the playoffs. The top pass defense is 3-0 so far. As for a pick? I’m torn. Part of me thinks the Jags are crazy enough to pull the upset. The other part thinks New England will destroy them. I’ll split the difference. New England wins but barely covers.

Pick: Patriots

NFC Championship: Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018

Minnesota (-3) at Philadelphia, 6:40 p.m. ET (FOX)

If your mouth is still agape when you pause to ponder the Vikings’ walk-off win against the Saints last week, you’re not alone. The best game of the postseason saw four lead changes in the final three minutes or so, and Stefon Diggs’s touchdown was a chills-inducing sports moment if there ever was one. Lost in the play was the fact that Case Keenum threw a perfect ball that may have still led to a game-winning field goal had Diggs merely stepped out of bounds after making the catch.

Keenum has the advantage against Nick Foles, who was good against Atlanta but has been spotty since taking over for Carson Wentz. The Vikings’ defense is a known commodity, and were this game being played in the wall of noise that is U.S. Bank Stadium, they’d be a prohibitive favorite. As is, they’re so well-balanced that even with the game outside, they’re still favored by three.

Philadelphia’s defense rose to the occasion against Matt Ryan and the Falcons, as Fletcher Cox and company blew up everything Atlanta wanted to do and refused to wilt with the game on the line. The Eagles used run-pass option plays to make Foles more comfortable, and it paid off, as he was able to get in rhythm and be a weapon instead of just someone along for the ride. The atmosphere in Philly should be off the charts — and weird with a large percentage of fans likely to wear dog masks after offensive lineman Lane Johnson donned one following the final whistle last week.

Both defenses are so good that this feels like a game that would be a close to even match even if Wentz was healthy. The Eagles will need to get Foles into the game in a positive way as early as possible in order to keep Everson Griffen and the Vikings’ pass rush off of him.

If you’re a fan of defense and “old school” football, this is your game. It also has the added juicy storyline of Minnesota vying to become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its host stadium. The guess here is that, behind an indomitable defense and Keenum’s steady, sometimes spectacular hand, Mike Zimmer’s team will do just that.

Pick: Vikings