NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Patriots cruise, but one favorite will lose

The Falcons are making history here, becoming the first ever six seed to be favored over a one seed. The reason for this, of course, is obvious: no Carson Wentz means the Eagles are a vastly different outfit than the one that stomped through the competition in the regular season. Despite the Falcons’ third-place finish in the NFC South and skin-of-their-teeth entry into the playoffs, Pro Football Focus had them as one of their highest-rated teams all season. By PFF’s metrics, Atlanta underachieved in record, but was one of the most formidable teams in the league. Unfortunately for Philly, the Falcons appear very much like one of the league’s best teams, and their performance last week was arguably the weekend’s most impressive. Atlanta controlled the ball against the Rams, weathered Aaron Donald enough to not let him completely take over the game, and looked very much like a team that could roll right to the NFC Championship Game.

Philadelphia isn’t dead in the water in this game – they have plenty of talent, plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball – but no one expects Nick Foles to effectively duel Matt Ryan. If they’re going to win this game, it is going to require a superlative effort from their defense, and a deliberately ugly offensive strategy. The Eagles can’t come out and trade punches with Atlanta, or they’ll get left in the dust. They need to be opportunistic and take shots down field only on occasion, and try to control the clock. That will be easier said than done against an Atlanta defense that really is coming into its own at the right time. Philly’s crowd should be louder and rowdier than what the Falcons faced in Los Angeles, but unless one of those in attendance is a clone of Wentz, who happens to be suited up and eligible to play, it won’t matter.

Pick: Falcons

Tennessee at New England (-13.5), 8:15 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Titans are in trouble, let’s just get that out of the way up front. Unless Marcus Mariota channels his collegiate self, and Tom Brady his same such, Tennessee will be at a pronounced disadvantage at the most important spot on the field. Add to that the fact that the Titans had a negative point differential this year, the fact that they took advantage of both the comically inept Chiefs and the comically inept officials, and the fact that they got an extremely fortunate bounce on Mariota’s touchdown pass to himself, and you have the resume of a team that probably shouldn’t be here. The Titans can run the ball, but Bill Belichick is a master at taking a way what the opposition wants to do most, and forcing them to do that which they would rather not. Tennessee has been good against the run, but very vulnerable against the pass. New England has proven on numerous occasions that they can turn their offense completely one-dimensional and have it work out fine. The Titans’ only hope is to force turnovers and turn this into a slugfest - easier said than done.

New England, on the other hand? For the second straight year they get an underwhelming opponent in the divisional round. Last year it was the Texans, who entered the game with a solid defense but little else. The Pats struggled early but handled Houston comfortably in the end. In this one, they can pick their method of the attack. They can do what Tennessee least expects and run Dion Lewis right at the Titans, or they can use Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead in the passing game, or they can simply challenge the Titans downfield with Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks, among others. Nothing the Titans do should bother the Pats, and if New England plays anywhere near its normal level, this game will be noncompetitive by the middle of the second quarter or so. Brady’s post-season record at home is nearly flawless, having suffered only three defeats – two to the Ravens and one to the Jets. Joe Flacco and Rex Ryan aren’t walking out of the visitor’s tunnel.

Pick: Patriots

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7.5), 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Jaguars’ defense is confident heading into this one, and understandably so. When these teams met at Heinz Field in October, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell and the rest of their fellow defenders throttled Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, picking him off five times, two of which were returned for touchdowns, handing the black and gold a truly humiliating defeat. Leonard Fournette also had gaudy numbers, but those were burnished by a 90-yard run in the fourth quarter when the Steelers were selling out to try and make a play. Perhaps more useful as a predictive measure for Sunday’s affair is the fact that Blake Bortles passed for a paltry 95 yards, and only attempted 14 passes in the first go-round. He’ll likely have to do a lot more than that this week, because the Jags got the worst version of Roethlisberger the first time, and the guy they’ll see in a few days is on a major roll. Those who watched Bortles against Buffalo can’t be very confident that he can deliver the goods, if need be.

The Steelers have lost once since being humiliated by Jacksonville, and even that game, against the vaunted Patriots, felt like it was stolen from them by a healthy dose of Al Riveron and continued confusion as to what is and isn’t a catch in today’s NFL. Put simply, the Steelers are playing very good to excellent football, and have been for some time. Antonio Brown should be 100 percent or very close to it for this game, and with Martavis Bryant’s recent uptick in play, as well as the emergence of Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh has a plethora of weapons with which to attack the Jags. Pittsburgh’s formula should be simple: crowd the box to stop the run and dare Bortles to beat them. Offensively, though it might be tempting to stay conservative, one imagines that Roethlisberger will want to prove that the last meeting between these teams was a fluke, and challenge Jacksonville, especially in the middle of the field. The Jags have a truly great defense and a special runner in Fournette, but playoff games are usually decided by quarterback play. That makes this prediction easy.

Pick: Steelers

New Orleans at Minnesota (-4), 4:40 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Saints are here because they were able to hold on late against Cam Newton, and because Drew Brees delivered a virtuoso performance, torturing the Panthers with back shoulder throws, deep bombs and everything in between. Brees’ performance was the most impressive individual effort of the Wild Card round. New Orleans was stifled in the season opener by Minnesota, a game that, like this one, was in Minneapolis. While the Vikings’ quarterback was Sam Bradford for that game, Case Keenum has come in and played at a borderline MVP level for long stretches. The Saints have found something special in the form of Alvin Kamara since then, and their defense has gotten much better. Kamara and Mark Ingram are the first backfield-mates to top 1,500 yards from scrimmage in the same season, and Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn, Jr. give Brees explosive targets downfield. What’s more, it’s unlikely Brees and Sean Payton will be intimidated by a loud, hostile crowd.

Reading the above, you’d think the Vikings were in big trouble, but they’re four-point favorites for a reason. No team has been better on defense, and more surprisingly efficient and at times explosive on offense. Minnesota has surrendered 300 or more yards of offense only five times this season, and only twice since Week 4. Keenum, as mentioned above, has been excellent all season, defying expectations to notch a passer rating of 98.3 on the year. Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph give Minnesota plenty of options in the passing game, and Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have performed admirably since Dalvin Cook was lost to injury. The Vikes’ defense needs no introduction. They are fearsome, fast, and devoid of any weak spots. Harrison Smith was the best safety in the league in the eyes of most experts, and Everson Griffen was unblockable all year. There is no reason, looking at this game on paper, to think that Minnesota simply won’t impose their will and strangle another opponent at home, where they were 7-1 on the year. No reason except that pesky maxim about the playoffs and quarterback play, and the fact that Drew Brees looks unstoppable right now.

Pick: Saints