How did Cover 2 collapse the creative Chiefs offense?

An incredible change of fortune is playing out in the AFC West. Whereas the Chargers are trying to become the first team to start 0-4 and make the playoffs since their franchise did it back in 1992, the Chiefs are looking at the more ignominious side of things. 

If their decline holds, Kansas City would become just the seventh team since 1990, when the NFL adopted its current playoff format, to start 5-0 and miss the postseason. Oddly enough, the phenomenon has become something of an annual tradition the last few years. Should the Chiefs end up missing the playoffs, it would be the third straight season a 5-0 team has had that kind of collapse. In 2015, it was the Falcons. Last season, it was the Vikings. 

It’s looking like a distinct possibility now that Kansas City has dropped five of six, and its lead in the division has been reduced to one game. Typically, Andy Reid teams thrive after the bye. This season, however, the Chiefs have lost two straight since their week off, and the offense looks nothing like the one that was averaging more than 30 points per game over the first five weeks.

Both Kansas City and Los Angeles benefit from a fairly easy remaining schedule. The Chiefs have no games left against teams with a record .500 or better. The Chargers have only one, and it’s their last remaining head-to-head matchup with the Chiefs. Oakland is also in the mix at one game behind Kansas City, though the Raiders have been more consistently mediocre this season than either K.C. or L.A. Other things not favoring the Raiders: They just lost one of their starting receivers for two games due to a suspension, and one of their last remaining games is on the road at Philadelphia. By the time Week 16 rolls around, the Eagles may not have anything to play for, yet it’s still possible they’ll be jockeying for home-field advantage. For now, it seems safe to pencil that in as a loss for the Raiders. 

So what happened to that Chiefs offense? It’s staggering to behold considering injuries haven’t robbed the Chiefs of any of their playmakers. It’s true their receiving corps is somewhat thin, but they’ve had Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill more or less for their entire run this season. The interior of the offensive line has missed a few games, but overall, they’ve been pretty healthy there as well. 

That means, unsurprisingly, that the brunt of the blame is falling on quarterback Alex Smith. His stellar play was one of the standout surprises of the NFL season’s first five weeks. That he came out and threw all over the defending champion Patriots in the season kickoff game caught everyone, especially New England, by surprise. In fact, in beating New England and Philly in consecutive weeks, the Chiefs have the most impressive two-game stretch of any team in the league this season. 

Yet somehow Smith has come crashing back to Earth in the last two months. During the 5-0 start, Smith’s yards per attempt and air yards per attempt numbers were noticeably higher than his career figures. In recent weeks, the hyper-conservative version of Alex Smith has returned. In the last two weeks especially, both losses in which the K.C. offense couldn’t put more than 10 points on the board, Smith has struggled. Three of his four interceptions on the season have come in the past two games. His yards per attempt have floated around five while his air yards per attempt are at a measly four. Those are below even Smith’s career averages.

The early season ascendance of Smith had quieted the buzz around first-round pick Pat Mahomes, a gunslinging type who seemed like the antidote to years of Alex Smith dinking and dunking. Most observers even attributed Smith’s early season success to pressure put on him by the arrival of Mahomes. But now that the Chiefs are losing, fans are getting impatient. After the loss to the Bills this past week, Reid had to dismiss calls for a quarterback change.  

Of course, it’s unfair to place all the blame on Smith when Andy Reid deserves plenty of the responsibility as well. A lot of the Chiefs’ offensive firepower over the first five games was due to creative playcalling and using speed to get favorable matchups. Defenses adjusted, perhaps taking note of the way the Steelers brought their attack to a halt in Week 6. Even Chiefs players have noticed that opponents now typically line up in cover 2 against them, including those that seldom use the formation otherwise. 

The idea of having two deep safeties is to keep the offense in front of you. The Chiefs have complied. Cover 2 is hardly a revolutionary defensive concept, and yet the Chiefs can’t seem to beat it anymore. Until they do, the team is going to continue to languish. Perhaps putting in Mahomes opens up the offense somewhat. It seems like a desperate hope when the playcalling is struggling with basic looks, and that falls on the big man in charge.