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With Chuck Pagano on borrowed time, Colts face long road back
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

With Chuck Pagano on borrowed time, Colts face long road back

Were Chuck Pagano a first- or second-year head coach, the fact that his team just dropped to 2-5 following a shutout loss to a division rival might be mitigated by the fact that the team has been missing its franchise quarterback for the duration of the season.

Of course, that isn’t the case. Instead, the Colts are closing in on their third straight season without a playoff appearance, and Pagano is in his sixth year with the team. Most observers assumed he would be fired at the end of the 2016 season and were blindsided when he wasn’t.

Luck missed nine games in 2015 after making every start in the first three seasons. He only missed one game in 2016, played well, and yet the team still foundered. For many, that was sufficient proof that Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson had failed in their jobs, and yet only Grigson was cut loose.

The first seven games this season have been bad enough that the sword of Damocles is teetering over Pagano. Following the 27-0 loss to the Jaguars in which the Colts surrendered 10 sacks, things were precarious enough that it was ultimately uncertain whether Pagano would get the ax in the immediate aftermath.

He was spared for this week at least. It could be that doing it now would be too disruptive to the game preparation process, and the franchise wants to give it another three weeks until the Colts reach their bye in Week 11.

Winning three straight would certainly give management enough reason to let Pagano coach out the rest of 2017, though that’s likely to be a tall task given that what awaits are road games in Cincinnati and Houston, followed by a home game against Pittsburgh, against whom Pagano’s Colts are 0-3. Even winning two of those games might spare Pagano until December. We’re clearly at the point where it’s going to be a gut decision from Jim Irsay and the front office, so it’s difficult to predict exactly what the threshold would be.

What is clear is that the Colts are underperforming in areas beyond quarterback. If anything, Jacoby Brissett has been a pleasant surprise, if not quite playing on the level of Luck. And how could a young quarterback be expected to do that well when the offensive line is a disaster? No. 1 wideout T.Y. Hilton called his linemen out following Sunday’s loss.

Hilton walked back his comments on Monday. Good luck disputing his assessment, though. Blocking has been an issue for the Colts for years, and the defense is roughly as much of a disaster. Some of that can be laid at Grigson’s feet, but it’s clear Pagano hasn’t elevated the level of talent to a competitive level.

There are those suggesting that Hilton could be moved in a trade to get the ball rolling on a near-complete rebuild. The presumptive exception to that, of course, is Andrew Luck. It’s looking increasingly like 2017 will be a lost season for Luck, and frankly it might as well be with the quality of the line.

Even if building around Luck isn’t ideal for a quarterback who should be regularly contending for a title at this point in his career, he is what ensures the Colts will have their pick of top coaching candidates. Pagano would almost have to win out to save his job, and that simply isn’t going to happen. Fortunately for the Colts, even if they lose another season or two with a rebuild, Luck is 28. The advancing age at which passers can be effective means they could still conceivably get another decade of quality play out of him.

As for Pagano, he’s adopting the classic Bill Belichick “on to Cincinnati” line to deflect questions for the time being. His version sounds 100 percent more resigned to doom.

Good luck with the grinding, coach.

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