Tale of the tape: American League Championship Series

Where they’ve been

Over the final month of the year, the Astros regained their form as baseball’s most prolific offense and continued to put that on display in their Division Series win over the Red Sox. Houston hit .333 as team in the last round and had a knack for swaying momentum their way mostly on-demand.

For a team that has largely not traveled this far in the postseason, the Astros seem incredibly well-adjusted to the postseason. They are playing with the persistent edge of a team that knows what it is like to see the upper hand slip away — and does not want to experience it again.

In their favor: Starting the series at home 

With the Yankees eliminating the Indians, it gave homefield advantage back to Houston, which could prove to be invaluable. The Astros posted eight runs in each of the Division Series games at Minute Maid Park, including six home runs.

While the offense dazzled, the starting pitching held down the fort as well. Including his one run over 5.2 innings in the ALDS, Game 1 starter Dallas Keuchel has a 2.22 ERA at home on the year. What’s more, current members of the Yankees roster are hitting only .181 lifetime against the southpaw. Add in how comfortable Game 2 starter Justin Verlander has gotten in his new home digs in Houston (three earned runs allowed in three starts at Minute Maid), and the Yanks have quite a task ahead of them before even returning to the Bronx.

Where are they most at risk: A bad start from either of their aces 

Alright, since we have the lauding of both of the former Cy Young winners on the staff out of the way, it is important to note just how little of a margin of error they have in remaining on the top of their games. Behind Keuchel and Verlander is a mismatch of arms that is tough to figure out how to deploy. Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers Jr. and Francisco Liriano got beat around by the Red Sox, and it was not until Verlander entered Game 4 in his first relief appearance ever that things settled down again on the mound for Houston.

This collection of arms will be counted on to carry the weight when the series shifts to Yankee Stadium, which could present a massive opportunity for the Yanks to steal the series back into their favor.

Also of note, the Houston bullpen was hit hard in the last series (a 6.23 ERA in 13.2 innings), and it could have been worse if not for Verlander’s 2.2 innings of bridge work in Game 4. A.J. Hinch will have to be very judicious in when and whom he goes to against the quick-striking Yankees lineup, as his confidence in the bullpen may be rightfully questionable.

What must go right, get better and stay the same 

Offense like the Astros' are tough to deal with. Five members of the everyday lineup hit .375 or better against Boston, led by Jose Altuve’s .533 average and Yuli Gurriel’s .529 mark. They are a relentless and deep attack that can continue to bring options off the bench swinging with bad intentions. Evan Gattis, Carlos Beltran, Marwin Gonzalez and Cameron Maybin offer Hinch plenty of options and a variety of ways to attack any given scenario.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if the Houston rotation is going to be top-heavy, the bullpen is going to have to turn into thoroughbreds instead of busts this time around. Much of that responsibility falls on the shoulders of Hinch not being gun-shy about going to Will Harris and Luke Gregerson, who worked only 2.2 combined innings vs. Boston. When pairing off against the loaded New York bullpen, the margin of error in winning the inning-to-inning relief chess game is slim.

Finally, while the postseason is a whole different animal than the six-month slate before it, it is worth noting that the Astros took five of seven from the Yanks on the year. However, they only outscored them by two runs total, 43-41. An airtight series could be ahead, but with a shot reaching the World Series with perhaps the franchise’s best team ever, incentive is at an all-time high in Houston.

In the other corner: AL Wild Card winner New York Yankees 

Where they’ve been

The Yankees enter their first ALCS in six years on the heels of one of the bigger postseason upsets in recent memory over the Cleveland Indians. While the idea of this year’s Yankees being an overachieving, rebuilding team is bit overplayed, they still defied all odds in overcoming the AL’s top team. With Wednesday night’s victory, it sealed a furious comeback from an 0-2 deficit and continued a string of owning elimination games.

That is a heck  of a way to go about getting business done, but if anything, it has certainly built their confidence to peak conditions. Now as baseball’s most storied franchise prepares to send potentially its most unlikely team ever to its 16th appearance in the ALCS, the Yankees are doing more than playing with house money; they have the confidence of knowing that it is never too late to take down even the biggest of dogs.

In their favor: Bullpen delivering on promise and then some

Murderers' Row has been traditionally aligned with the Ruth and Gehrig era of Yankees potency at the plate. Considering how the New York bullpen has performed this postseason, it could be considered the modern-day conglomerate of mass murderers in the Bronx.

Yankee relievers held opponents to a .153 average against them over 28.2 innings this postseason, striking out 42 while picking up a pair of wins in the process. All but two of the seven total runs against them came in the 9-8 loss in Game 2. Otherwise, Yankees relievers have nearly thrown a complete game shutout over the their three ALDS victories, not allowing a run to cross the plate over the last 8.2 innings.

While the bullpen is due praise, do not look past how well the starters performed either. While Sonny Gray had a rocky outing in Game 1, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino and CC Sabathia had heroic performances in shutting down the Cleveland lineup while they reclaimed control of the series. Tanaka and Severino each worked seven strong innings in their respective outings, while Sabathia had a gutsy outing Wednesday night that saw him run up nine strikeouts in just under five innings.

Where are they most at risk: Smoke and mirrors in play?

Although they did prove up to the challenge of defeating a front-line arm, the Yanks will face a daunting task in Keuchel. The Astros’ co-ace has a 1.41 ERA in six career starts against the club and also authored the team’s exit from the 2015 postseason, in Yankee Stadium no less. With the specter of him making three starts in the series ahead, it would be a prime time to figure out how to perform a seance on his haunting of the Bronx.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has again taken a severe swoon in the wrong direction. The rookie right fielder went 1-for-20 against Cleveland and set an MLB postseason series record with 16 strikeouts. The New York offense has shown it can survive without him at his best, but it will not be able to keep up with the high-octane Houston lineup with its biggest gun so utterly lost.

Finally, Gray must become a tone setter in the series. The Yanks' headline addition at the trade deadline has been solid but not spectacular since coming over from Oakland. He struggled through three innings in Game 1 of the ALDS before being lifted early in the fourth. As he will be paired up perhaps twice in a marquee matchup with Keuchel or Verlander in the upcoming series, the Yankees need Gray to be able to work deeper into games and be more than just a bookmark in the story before the bullpen takes over.

What must go right, get better and stay the same

It is a must that the Yankees sway momentum earlier in this series. The Astros are a team that can bury an opponent early on beneath a pile of runs, and even an offense as talented as New York’s would be best-suited to not get too far behind in this series.

While Judge’s struggles may be the most pronounced, he is far from alone in underachieving at the plate this postseason. The club hit only .201 against Cleveland pitching, with Gary Sanchez, Chase Headley and Judge all batting well south of .200. Even for his undeniable flare for the big moment, Didi Gregorius hit just .235 in the series. They must get better at manufacturing runs between the big home run moments, or they will get swallowed alive by the Houston offense.

Regardless of their shortcomings, this team plays with the type of chip on its shoulder that is rarely seen from a Yankees club. Maybe it is the fact they have been labeled as underdogs; perhaps it is the motivation to perform for manager Joe Girardi, whose job may have been on the line on Wednesday night (and may still be). Perhaps it is simply that they have been underrated the whole time. Whatever it may be, the Yankees have a very clear and present opportunity to knock off another extremely favored opponent over the next week — all they have to do is continue to do all the little things right.