The truth about Trump and the stock market
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Donald Trump was at it again on Tuesday morning. xHad the opposition party (no, not the Media) won the election, the Stock Market would be down at least 10,000 points by now. We are heading up, up, up!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 19, 201The truth about Trump and the stock market
Donald Trump was at it again on Tuesday morning. xHad the opposition party (no, not the Media) won the election, the Stock Market would be down at least 10,000 points by now. We are heading up, up, up!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 19, 2019 It’s not the first time Trump has made such a claim. It’s likely not the 100th. Ever since his election, Trump has regularly pointed to the upward progress of the Dow Jones as if it validates everything he’s ever done, or ever will do. But here’s the truth: If Trump wants to claim the stock market performance since he moved into the White House, he should know that that performance is crap. Here’s how the Dow Jones has behaved over the last decade. Dow Jones results scaled by percentage change While Trump loves to point to the big-number increase and record days, they don’t really mean much, because those numbers are on top of a market that was already at 20,000 when he took office. A 2,000 rise when the market is at 8,000 is a big deal. It’s a much, much smaller deal on a market already on the high side of 20,000. And there was a period there when Trump stopped talking about the stock market altogether—it was called “2018.” For those who need a reminder, here’s the truth: On a sheer total-increase basis, Obama did better than Trump. On a percentage-increase basis, Obama did better than Trump. On an average year-by-year return basis, Obama did better than Trump. And the stock market has been much more erratic under Trump. in 2018, the Dow suffered its worst year since before Obama took office—a decline of 5.63 percent—and that was despite Trump spiking the punch with a massive corporate tax giveaway. Even Trump’s best year, 2017, when he was bragging about the market day after day, didn’t match the performance that Obama delivered in 2013 simply by providing a rational environment. All that Trump has proved is that there’s no amount of giveaways and mindless deregulation that matches the market-boosting effects of waking up knowing that the government is stable, consistent, and in the hands of someone not likely to make 10 nonsensical statements before breakfast. Oh, and Trump’s statement about “had the opposition won the election”? It did. And since Democrats took control of the House, the market is up. It seems that even Wall Street recognizes that sanity is good for profits. Read more