How Daily Kos Elections reports on and analyzes polls
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Polls are very important to election analysts, since they can tell us a great deal about a given race. But they also have their limitations, which is why we at Daily Kos Elections have strict requirements before we'll write up a poll and analyze it in our daiHow Daily Kos Elections reports on and analyzes polls
Polls are very important to election analysts, since they can tell us a great deal about a given race. But they also have their limitations, which is why we at Daily Kos Elections have strict requirements before we'll write up a poll and analyze it in our daily newsletter, the Morning Digest. Below, we'll discuss those requirements, as well as other factors we look at in order to best derive meaning from survey data. Requirements 1) Pollster name. Most pollsters have reputations, some good and some bad. Without knowing who conducted a poll, we have no way to place it the context of that pollster's other work. And if a pollster is new to us and doesn't have a track record, that's something we want to know, too—and convey to our readers. Put another way: If a pollster isn't proud enough to put its name on its work, what does that say about the quality of the work? Unfortunately, along with the ongoing problem of fake news, there are also fake polls. Yes, there are destructive people out there who will create press releases or even entire websites touting fake polls from nonexistent pollsters. Fortunately, these are rare, but sniffing them out is part of our job, and if we encounter an unfamiliar name, we'll always do our best to determine that outfit's bona fides before discussing any of their work. 2) Pollster's partisan affiliation. If a pollster is a partisan outfit—that is to say, it works for either Republican or Democratic clients—we want to know that, because studies show that partisan polls that become public tend to lean in favor of their own side. We're not accusing partisan pollsters of stacking the deck (though some might), since most generally want to get an accurate read of the races they're surveying. But unlike independent pollsters, partisan outfits only release their data selectively, and usually only if it's good for their team. 3) Client (if any). Some pollsters conduct polls independently (i.e., for themselves), and many do so for nonpartisan news organizations. But if a pollster has a client with skin in the game, that's important to know, for reasons similar to those just above. We don't necessarily require the exact client's name, but at the very least, we want a general description of who the client is (or isn't). If we can't determine whether or not there was a client, or who that client might be, we'll always say so, so that our readers can deploy an appropriate measure of skepticism. When campaigns or those with a rooting interest in a race release internal polls, they almost always do so to support a particular narrative, or to boost fundraising, or both. Always be on the lookout for such possibilities. Read more