Morning Digest: Independent Gov. Bill Walker's withdrawal leaves Alaska a two-way governor's race
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Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, DavidMorning Digest: Independent Gov. Bill Walker's withdrawal leaves Alaska a two-way governor's race
Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● AK-Gov: In a dramatic 11th-hour move, independent Gov. Bill Walker announced on Friday that he was abandoning his bid for re-election and endorsing former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, turning what had been a three-way race into a one-on-one battle between Begich and Republican Mike Dunleavy, a former state senator. Polls had shown Begich and Walker, who first won office in 2014 with the support of Democrats, splitting the vote in the center and on the left, putting Dunleavy comfortably ahead. Walker’s departure should therefore improve the chances that Democrats pick up this seat. Campaign Action It was precisely that split that Walker identified in his surprise announcement just before a candidate forum on Friday as the key reason for his decision, saying, «In the time remaining, we cannot win a three-way race.» Walker said that after speaking with “many Alaskans” about who would be the stronger candidate, he’d concluded, “Begich has the better odds.” Polling, however, has found Begich and Walker with very similar numbers against Dunleavy, and Walker didn’t elaborate further as to why he’d reached that judgment. But there are additional factors at play, including one that hasn’t had time to surface in the polls: the resignation on Tuesday of Walker’s lieutenant governor, Byron Mallot, over unspecified “inappropriate comments” he’d recently made, apparently to an unidentified woman. While Walker quickly chose a replacement, Health and Social Services Commissioner Valerie Nurr’araaluk Davidson, Mallot’s resignation was the sort of distraction no campaign wants just weeks from Election Day. And that wasn’t the only liability Walker faced. Alaska is heavily dependent on the energy industry, and the decline in oil prices in recent years has hit the state’s revenues hard. As a result, the governor has feuded with the legislature over unpopular budget cuts for years, leaving him with negative approval ratings. Begich doesn’t carry that same baggage with him, though he’s still the underdog, and recent polls of a head-to-head contest have found Dunleavy leading Begich. However, the only data over the last few months has come from just one firm, Alaska Survey Research, a Democratic outfit, and Alaska is a notoriously difficult state to poll. What’s more, all of those surveys tested what was, at the time, a purely hypothetical matchup; voters may feel differently now that a two-way race is a reality. Read more