House battleground polls look good for Democrats, but the cliche is true: It's all about turnout
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Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic based on New York Times/Siena College polling of 50 battleground House districts, Nate Cohn writes. But there is most definitely work to be done. “It all comes down to turnout” is a cliche of politics, buHouse battleground polls look good for Democrats, but the cliche is true: It's all about turnout
Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic based on New York Times/Siena College polling of 50 battleground House districts, Nate Cohn writes. But there is most definitely work to be done. “It all comes down to turnout” is a cliche of politics, but … it all comes down to turnout. Across the Times/Siena polls, Republicans have a six-point lead among voters who turned out in 2014. But Democrats counter with a 10-point advantage among voters who didn’t turn out in that election. Those voters are poised to represent more than one-third of the electorate, enough to essentially eliminate the Republican turnout advantage of the last decade. Democrats have had a turnout advantage in the New Jersey and Virginia state elections of 2017 as well as a host of special elections, but have to maintain that edge in districts across the country on November 6. There’s also reason for concern—and a giant flashing message for the future—in who is and is not planning to vote in large numbers: Across our polls, 58 percent of white registered voters say they’re “almost certain” to vote, compared with 50 percent of black registered voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters. [...] And just 38 percent of registered voters who are 18 to 34 years say they’re almost certain to vote, compared with 62 percent of those over age 65. Campaigns and GOTV organizations should take that as a challenge over the next two and a half weeks, but it’s not just a challenge for this November, it’s a longer-term project that can’t just be answered with campaign-specific GOTV efforts. The news is good but it could be better and we have two and a half weeks to make it so. Then, hopefully, a celebration, followed by getting to work for the 2020 and 2022 and beyond. GET OUT THE VOTE for Democrats. Just click here, enter your zip code, choose the event that works best for you, and RSVP to attend. Read more